Domestic: 30.68% Year-on-Year Growth in Installations from January to June, Strong Demand Expected for the Year
China: 102.48GW of New Energy Storage Installations in H1 2024, 30.68% Year-on-Year Growth
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From January to June 2024, the newly installed capacity was 102.48GW, a year-on-year increase of 30.68%. According to the National Energy Administration, from January to June 2024, the domestic newly installed solar capacity was 102.48GW, a year-on-year increase of 30.68%. In 2023, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity will grow explosively, with an annual installed capacity of 216GW, a year-on-year increase of 147%. The high growth rate lays a high base. Considering the pressure of grid absorption, we expect that the domestic photovoltaic installed capacity will be 240GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11%. With the rapid rush to install at the end of 23 and the newly installed capacity of 50GW+ in December, the photovoltaic installed capacity in January and February still maintained a high growth rate, exceeding expectations, and the installed capacity slowed down from March to June.
Energy Bureau: Guiding the Release of Upstream Photovoltaic Capacity to Avoid Overbuilding of Low-End Capacity
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Promote high-quality development and avoid duplicate construction. On June 21, the State Council Information Office held a series of press conferences on “Promoting High-quality Development”. Li Chuangjun, Director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, said at the meeting that relevant departments will organize industry associations to release information such as industry scale, capacity utilization and market demand in a timely manner, reasonably guide the construction and release of upstream photovoltaic capacity, avoid duplicate construction of low-end capacity, and strive to create a good market environment.
National Energy Administration: China’s Renewable Energy Generation Capacity Surpasses Coal Power for the First Time
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On July 26, the National Energy Administration announced that in the first half of the year, the country’s new installed power generation capacity was 153 million kilowatts, of which 128 million kilowatts were newly connected to the grid for wind power and solar power generation, accounting for 84% of the total new installed power generation capacity. As of the end of June, the country’s total installed power generation capacity was 3.07 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. Among them, coal-fired power was 1.17 billion kilowatts, accounting for 38.1% of the total installed power generation capacity; grid-connected wind power installed capacity was 470 million kilowatts, and grid-connected solar power installed capacity was 710 million kilowatts, totaling 1.18 billion kilowatts, accounting for 38.4% of the total installed capacity. For the first time, my country’s new energy power generation capacity exceeded coal-fired power.
In the first half of the year, the total investment in electricity completed by key surveyed enterprises nationwide was 598.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. Among them, the investment in power sources was 344.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation investment in power source investment reached 85%.
Energy Bureau: 102.48GW of New Photovoltaic Installations in H1 2024, Accounting for 8.83% of Total Power Generation
On July 25, the National Energy Administration released the construction status of photovoltaic power generation in the first half of the year. In the first half of 24, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 102.48GW. Among them, the newly installed capacity of centralized photovoltaic was 49.6GW; the newly installed capacity of industrial and commercial was 37.03GW; and the newly installed capacity of household photovoltaic was 15.85GW. As of the end of June 24, the cumulative grid-connected capacity of photovoltaic was 712.93GW, including 403.42GW of centralized photovoltaic power stations; 309.51GW of distributed photovoltaic power stations, including 131.84GW of household photovoltaic.
The power generation of renewable energy has steadily reached a new level. As of the end of June 24, the total power generation of wind power and solar energy reached 900.7 billion kWh, accounting for about 20% of the total power generation. In the first half of 2024, the national renewable energy power generation reached 1.56 trillion kWh, accounting for about 35.1% of the total power generation. Among them, photovoltaic power generation was 391.4 billion kWh, accounting for 8.83% of the total power generation; wind power generation was 508.8 billion kWh, accounting for 11.48% of the total power generation.
Overseas: Strong Ongoing Energy Storage Demand, Impressive Export Data for Modules
Inverter Exports Increased in June, Market Segmentation Becoming More Pronounced
Cumulative exports from January to June 2024 were US$4.01 billion, down 34.8% year-on-year. Exports in June 2024 were 5.85 million units, up 18.0%/+25.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, and the average price in June was US$156.76/unit, down 18.6%/-6.0% year-on-month. Year-on-year shipments rebounded significantly, but unit prices decreased.
In June 2024, South Africa declined year-on-year and month-on-month, Europe declined year-on-year, and the rest of the markets mostly increased year-on-year and month-on-month. The inverter export data in emerging markets such as India, Pakistan, and the Middle East is impressive, and the development of this part of the market is expected to become a new profit growth point. The heat of the South African market has declined significantly. In addition, under the influence of geopolitical conflicts, the cumulative export data directly to Western countries such as the United States and Europe has also declined significantly.
Pakistan: Plans to Launch Solarization Project for 1 Million Wells
On July 10, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired a federal cabinet meeting in Islamabad and said that the Ministry of Finance has been asked to develop a business plan for solarizing 1 million wells in the country. Currently, the government has launched a plan to solarize 28,000 tube wells in Balochistan Province to save 80 billion rupees in annual expenditure. The federal government will bear 70% of the cost and it is expected to be implemented within three months.
Solar tube wells are an irrigation system that uses solar energy to pump water from underground. Photovoltaic modules are installed near solar tube well pumps, generating electricity from solar panels to pump groundwater. The water is then stored in tanks or reservoirs and can be used for irrigation or other purposes. There are still 1 million tube wells in Pakistan that rely on oil-powered electricity, and Pakistan spends $3.5 billion a year importing oil for these tube wells.
Philippines: Streamlining Developer Application Process and Launching 10 Million Solar Rooftop Challenge
In June 2024, the Philippine Department of Energy plans to simplify the application process for renewable energy development and issue a certificate of authorization to developers to authorize them to carry out activities. The Department of Energy also simplifies the procedures for duty-free import incentives. Project developers can now obtain a certificate of registration (COR) after signing a contract or clearing proof of funds, allowing developers to flexibly use duty-free import incentives during the project development stage.
On July 17, the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) launched the “10 Million Solar Rooftop Challenge” at the “Clean and Affordable Renewable Energy Summit” to encourage businesses, government agencies, educational institutions, churches and individuals across the country to participate in solar rooftops.
Turkey: Announced $30 Billion High-Tech Incentive Program
Recently, Turkish President Erdogan announced at the High-Tech Incentive Program (HIT-30) conference in Istanbul that Turkey will launch a $30 billion incentive plan, focusing on attracting investment in advanced technology fields such as electric vehicles, battery production, semiconductor manufacturing and energy technology. This includes providing subsidies of up to $8,000/MW for solar cell investment, and will also allocate $1.7 billion for the production of wind energy components to create a “domestic wind energy brand.” Erdogan said that $2.5 billion in subsidies will be provided for solar cell facilities, aiming to achieve a production capacity of 15GW, and $1.7 billion has been allocated for the manufacture of key wind energy components.
Ukraine: Removed Taxes and Tariffs on Energy Equipment Imports, Introduces Zero-Interest Loans
On July 16, Ukraine’s parliament voted to remove taxes and tariffs on imported energy equipment, a decision largely due to the energy crisis caused by the war. Over the past three months, Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities have destroyed most of the country’s thermal and hydroelectric power. Since then, Ukraine has lost about half of its available power generation capacity, leaving millions of Ukrainians facing long power outages and water and air conditioning shortages during the hot summer. Senior Ukrainian lawmaker Danyo Hetmantsev said parliament approved two laws to remove tariffs and value-added tax on imported equipment for generators, wind and solar power generation, and batteries.
Starting July 20, the Ukrainian government implemented a program to provide citizens with interest-free loans and a “5-7-9 cheap loan” program for apartments and residential buildings to purchase alternative energy generation equipment and energy storage facilities. According to the plan, Ukrainian residents can enjoy 0% interest loans for the purchase of solar panels or wind turbines with energy storage systems. The loan term is 10 years and the maximum loan amount is 480,000 hryvnias (equivalent to RMB 85,000). At the same time, owners of apartments and residential buildings can obtain loans of up to 5 million hryvnias with a maximum loan term of 5 years and an annual interest rate of 7%. These funds can be used to purchase and install solar panels, inverters, energy storage systems and other auxiliary equipment.
India and Italy See Strong Cumulative Installation Growth in 2024, While Japan, Taiwan, and the UK Experience Slowdown
India added 1.2GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in June 24, down 47.41%/-27.00% year-on-year and month-on-month. In February 2024, the ALMM restart was suspended, which was good for photovoltaics and the installed capacity increased significantly. From January to June 24, the cumulative installed capacity was 12.16GW, up 78.91% year-on-year.
Spain added 0.09GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in June 24, down 55.73%/-75.5% year-on-year and month-on-month. From January to June 24, the cumulative installed capacity was 1.85GW, up 6.45% year-on-year.
Germany added 1.14GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in June 24, down 16.34%/+20.19% year-on-month. From January to June 24, the cumulative installed capacity was 7.30GW, up 7.93% year-on-year.
Japan added 0.28GW of photovoltaic shipments in May 24, down 25.07%/+15.32% year-on-year and month-on-month. Cumulative shipments from January to May in 24 were 1.55GW, down 18.69% year-on-year.
Italy added 0.66GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in May 24, up 51.26%/+28.27% year-on-year and month-on-month. Cumulative installed capacity from January to May in 24 was 3.02GW, up 62.71% year-on-year.
Taiwan, China installed 0.26GW of photovoltaic capacity in May 24, up 6.62%/+75.09% year-on-month. Cumulative installed capacity from January to May in 24 was 0.8GW, down 19.53% year-on-year.
The UK added 0.07GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in April 24, down 5.71%/+5.43% year-on-month. Cumulative installed capacity from January to April in 2024 was 0.25GW, down 41.13% year-on-year.
Brazil added 1.34GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in March 24, down 24.86% year-on-year. From January to March 2024, Brazil’s cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity was 3.9GW, a year-on-year increase of 1.85%.
Global Solar PV New Installations Expected to Reach 490 GW in 2024, Up 21% Year-on-Year
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In 2024, China, the United States, and Europe will continue to grow, with overseas countries contributing more growth. China’s new installed capacity in 2023 is high, and we expect a slight increase in 2024; the US EIA has raised its expectations for new installed capacity, and Europe’s demand is strong. We expect to maintain a high growth rate in 2024. We expect the global new photovoltaic installed capacity to be 490GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21%, of which China/the United States/Europe will have new installed capacity of 240/40/72GW, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 11%/29%/20%.
