Global Market Overview: Market Size Exceeds 300 Million USD in 2023
At present, sodium-ion batteries have achieved small-scale production and demonstration applications in specific scenarios around the world. The global market size will reach US$320 million in 2023 and is expected to be close to US$1 billion by 2030. Among them, sodium-sulfur batteries have taken the lead in replacing lithium-ion batteries in the fields of grid-level energy storage and short-distance transportation due to their high energy density and long-term cycle stability, and occupy the largest revenue share of the global sodium-ion battery market, accounting for about 52%.
Global Key Players: Gradual Expansion into Commercial Applications in Sub-Segments
The main regions covered by the global sodium-ion battery market are North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. From the perspective of specific countries, the countries that have deployed sodium-ion batteries globally mainly include the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, Japan, Sweden, and Australia. At present, the product routes of representative manufacturers in the global market have been initially formed, and global manufacturers have successively promoted the construction of sodium-ion battery production capacity and the transformation of commercial application results. Among them, Faradion in the UK has deployed the application of sodium-ion batteries in the field of photovoltaic power station energy storage in 2022, and ALTRIS in Sweden has further carried out relevant layouts in the field of sodium-ion battery automotive low-voltage power supply applications, indicating that exploring the commercial application of sodium-ion batteries in subdivided fields is the main layout direction of the current global representative sodium-ion manufacturers.
China Market Overview: Actual Sodium-Ion Battery Shipments Reached 0.7 GWh in 2023
According to data from EVTank, China’s actual sodium-ion battery shipments in 2023 were 0.7GWh, and have not yet entered the stage of large-scale development. Combined with the trend of the average price of major batteries in China, although sodium-ion batteries have advantages in potential production costs, factors such as the scale effect have not yet been formed have led to the fact that the price advantage of sodium-ion batteries in sales channels is not obvious. Overall, the commercial development path of sodium-ion batteries in my country urgently needs further exploration.
China Market Overview: Key Manufacturers’ Production Expected to Gradually Increase
Judging from the production line layout of representative domestic manufacturers, the construction of sodium-ion battery production capacity has gradually entered a period of explosive growth. Currently, nearly 20 companies have clarified their sodium-ion battery production capacity plans. Some companies have planned their production capacities at the GWh level and have achieved product rollout, indicating that China’s sodium-ion battery industry has gradually entered the stage of mass production.
Regional Market Overview in China: Jiangsu Province Has the Largest Existing Production Capacity & Sodium-Ion Industry Becoming a Key Focus
Judging from the regional distribution of sodium power projects in China, by 2023, Jiangsu Province will be the province with the largest existing production capacity in my country, accounting for 45% of the country’s existing sodium power capacity. Judging from the investment in sodium power projects in various provinces and cities in China in 2023, Anhui Province ranks first with an investment of more than 35 billion yuan, indicating that Anhui Province is expected to achieve rapid development in the field of sodium power in the future.
The sodium-ion battery industry has gradually developed into one of the focuses of my country’s capital market. Venture capital and financing activities continue to be active, and the number of investment and financing events has increased from three in 2018 to 56 in 2023. Among them, manufacturers such as China Science and Technology Haina, Zero One Four, and Jiana Energy are all key investment targets of the capital market.
Power Sector Demand Scenarios: Expected Market Size to Exceed 15 Billion RMB by 2029
In the power sector, sodium-ion batteries have a broad potential for application mainly in short-distance pure electric vehicles and electric two-wheeled vehicles. During the period 2018-2023, the sales of pure electric vehicles in my country showed a year-on-year growth trend, reaching 6.685 million units in 2023. At the same time, the sales of two-wheeled electric vehicles also showed a steady upward trend. With the increase in the penetration rate of sodium-ion batteries in the power sector, it is preliminarily estimated that by 2029, the demand for sodium-ion batteries in China’s power sector will reach 38GWh, with a market size of approximately 15.2 billion RMB.
Energy Storage Sector Demand Scenarios: Sodium-Ion Energy Storage Capacity Expected to Grow Rapidly in the Short to Medium Term
At present, energy storage is the key area for the commercial application of sodium-ion batteries in my country. During 2016-2023, the cumulative installed capacity of China’s energy storage industry continued to grow, and entered a rapid growth stage in 2021. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed that cost-effective sodium-ion batteries are expected to become an important supplement to lithium-ion batteries, especially in the field of stationary energy storage, and will have good development prospects. Overall, the scale of sodium-ion energy storage is expected to grow rapidly in the short and medium term. According to preliminary statistics, by 2029, the application scale of sodium-ion energy storage in China will be close to 2,500MWh.
At present, energy storage is the key area for the commercial application of sodium-ion batteries in my country. During 2016-2023, the cumulative installed capacity of China’s energy storage industry continued to grow, and entered a rapid growth stage in 2021. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed that cost-effective sodium-ion batteries are expected to become an important supplement to lithium-ion batteries, especially in the field of stationary energy storage, and will have good development prospects. Overall, the scale of sodium-ion energy storage is expected to grow rapidly in the short and medium term. According to preliminary statistics, by 2029, the application scale of sodium-ion energy storage in China will be close to 2,500MWh.
Cost Challenges: The Significant Gap Between Current Sodium-Ion Production Costs and Theoretical Costs
Although the raw material cost of sodium-ion batteries is relatively low, the theoretical cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries has not yet been reflected, and the shipment volume and industrial development are not as expected. When the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is below 20 yuan/Wh, the current average production cost of sodium-ion batteries is still higher than that of competing products such as ternary lithium-ion batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries and lead-acid batteries.
Performance Challenges: Performance and Energy Density Gaps Compared to Lithium Batteries
The ionic radius of sodium ions is larger than that of lithium ions, and the relative mass of sodium is larger than that of lithium, which leads to a natural disadvantage of sodium ion batteries in terms of energy density. This means that in the case of the same volume or weight, sodium batteries can store less energy than lithium batteries.
Application Trend: Sodium-Ion Battery Projects are Gradually Being Implemented in the Energy Storage Station Sector
As China’s sodium-ion battery production gradually increases, China’s sodium-ion battery energy storage power station projects are gradually being implemented, taking the lead in replacing lithium batteries in the energy storage field, which also shows that sodium-ion battery energy storage is the core area of sodium-ion battery application in my country.
- April 2019: Global First 100 kWh Sodium-Ion Battery Energy Storage Station Project in Liyang, Jiangsu.
- June 2021: Global First 1 MWh Sodium-Ion Battery Solar-Storage-Charging Smart Microgrid System Project in Taiyuan, Shanxi.
- March 2024: Global First 10 MWh Sodium-Ion Battery Grid-Side Energy Storage Station Project in Nanning, Guangxi.
- June 2024: 100 MW/200 MWh Sodium-Ion New Energy Storage Station Technology Innovation Demonstration Project by Datang in Hubei.
Application Trend: Significant Comparative Advantages in Low-Temperature Applications
Sodium-ion batteries can operate normally between -40°C and 80°C and have good wide temperature characteristics. At a temperature of -20’C, the capacity retention rate of some sodium-ion battery products is close to 90%, while lithium iron phosphate batteries and lead-acid batteries can only reach 70% and 48% respectively. Based on the excellent performance of sodium-ion batteries in low temperature environments, it is expected to become a key factor in promoting the further application and popularization of new energy vehicles in cold climate areas.
Application Trend: More Sub-Segments Can Achieve Substitution and Supplementation of Lithium Batteries
In the short term, sodium-ion batteries cannot yet achieve disruptive replacement of lithium batteries. They are more of a substitute and supplement for specific application scenarios with low energy density requirements, such as power grid/home energy storage, data center UPS, dedicated/public electric vehicles, and medium-range home electric vehicles. The scale of market application is greatly affected by fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices. In the long term, if the research and development of sodium battery technology can achieve technical bottlenecks in performance and cost, and even achieve overtaking in the solid-state field, the role of sodium battery in replacing lithium battery may become stronger and stronger in the future.
