Power Lithium Ion Battery Demand Sees Strong Recovery, Industry Outlook Optimistic
The price war between car companies has led to superior performance in orders for cost-effective models. BYD Qin PLUS ranked first in sales in the past week, with about 12,000 units. On March 13, the State Council issued the “Action Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Equipment Updating and Trade-in of Consumer Goods”, which proposes to promote automobile tiered consumption and updated consumption, and at the same time organize and carry out national automobile trade-in promotion activities, and industry demand is improving. The rapid iteration of new energy and new products by various car companies has provided strong support to market sales. The China Automobile Association predicts that the sales volume of electric vehicles in 2023 will be approximately 9.4 million units, +36.5% year-on-year. The annual sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 will reach 11.5 million units, year-on-year. +20.0%.
Xiaomi SU7 Car Sales Surge, Annual Demand for Power Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries Could Exceed 7 GWh
On March 28, Xiaomi’s first electric car, SU7, was officially released. The new car is positioned as a “C-class high-performance ecological technology sedan” and is available in three versions, priced from RMB 215,900 to RMB 299,900. According to Xiaomi Auto’s official WeChat account, Xiaomi SU7’s sales exceeded 10,000 in 4 minutes, 20,000 in 7 minutes, and 50,000 in 27 minutes. The original version of 5,000 units sold out within 100 seconds. The first phase of the Xiaomi Automobile Factory is designed to have an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles. It was completed in June 2023 and is in the ramp-up stage. Lei Jun has set a sales target of 100,000 units for Xiaomi Auto in 2024.
Global Home Energy Storage Lithium Battery Shipments Reach 224.2 GWh, Chinese Companies Account for Over 90%
In 2023, global energy storage battery shipments will reach 224.2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%, of which Chinese companies’ energy storage battery shipments will be 203.8GWh, accounting for 90.9% of global energy storage battery shipments. Global energy storage battery shipments will reach 1397.8GWh by 2030. From the competitive landscape, power system energy storage is still the largest application field. The rising demand for overseas household energy storage has driven household energy storage shipments to grow year-on-year, while the communications energy storage market has declined year-on-year.
China’s Energy Storage Installed Capacity and Bidding Data
(1) China’s energy storage installed capacity data: In 2023, the domestic new new energy storage installed capacity will be 21.5GW/46.6GWh, +193%/+194% year-on-year; in the single quarter of 2023Q4, the newly installed capacity will be 9.2GW/21.1GWh, respectively. +119%/+148%; domestic new new energy storage installed capacity in 2022 will be 7.3GW/15.9GWh, +200%/280% year-on-year. As of the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage in China is 34.5GW/74.5GWh.
(2) China energy storage bidding data: The bidding capacity of domestic energy storage system projects from the beginning of 2024 to the present is 3.24GWh, of which the bidding capacity of domestic energy storage system projects in January is 3.24GWh; the bidding capacity of domestic energy storage systems in 2023 is 82.8GWh, and in 2022 The annual domestic energy storage system bidding capacity is 22.7GWh.
(3) China’s energy storage bid winning data: The total bid size of domestic energy storage systems in 2023 is 22.7GW/65.7GWh, +257%/+383% year-on-year; of which Q4 won bids of 13.6GW/27.0GWh.
China Energy Storage Battery Cell Pricing, Sales, and Energy Storage System Quotes
(1) The quotation of Prismatic energy storage battery cells (100Ah) this week is stable at 0.460RMB/Wh; the quotation at the beginning of 2024 was 0.460RMB/Wh, and the current quotation is flat; the quotation of Prismatic energy storage battery cells (280Ah) fell by 0.010RMB/Wh this week , is 0.430 RMB/Wh; the quotation at the beginning of 2024 was 0.440RMB/Wh, and the current quotation fell by 0.010RMB/Wh.
(2) In December 2023, domestic energy storage battery sales were 18.0GWh, +13% month-on-month; of which export volume was 5.5GWh, +13% month-on-month. In 2023, the cumulative sales volume of domestic energy storage batteries will be 113.4GWh, of which export volume will be 25.2GWh.
(3) In January 2024, the average bid price of domestic large-scale energy storage systems was 0.94 RMB/Wh.
Electricity Prices in Europe and the United States
(1) United States: From January 8 to January 9, 2024 (latest data), the weighted average price of electricity on major U.S. interstate exchanges was US$62.6/MWh, an increase of 11% from the previous week and an increase of 35% from the beginning of 2024.
(2) Germany: As of 2023Q4, the German electricity price index was 82.27 euros/MWh, down 57% year-on-year, down 9% month-on-month, down 29% from the beginning of 2023, and down 78% from the historical high in 2022Q3. In 2022Q3, the German electricity price index reached a historical high, and since 2022Q4, electricity prices have continued to fall.
Renewable Energy PPA Price Index in Europe and the United States
Europe: The average quotation of European renewable energy PPA in 2023Q3 was approximately 87 euros/MWh, +17% year-on-year and +2% month-on-month. in:
Photovoltaic power generation: The average quotation of European photovoltaic power generation PPA projects in Q3 2023 was 74 euros/MWh, +7% year-on-year and +3% month-on-month;
Wind power: The average quotation of European wind power PPA in 2023Q3 was 100 euros/MWh, +26% year-on-year and +2% month-on-month. Spain’s demand for wind energy continues to grow, boosting European wind power PPA prices in Q3. At the same time, difficulties in obtaining licenses, community opposition, and rising financing costs have lengthened the development cycle of European wind power and put significant pressure on development costs.
North America: The average quotation of renewable energy PPA in North America in 2023Q3 was approximately US$54.4/MWh, +18% year-on-year and +2% month-on-month. The North American renewable energy PPA price index has continued to rise since 2019Q1.
Energy Storage Installed Capacity in the United States
U.S. energy storage installed capacity data: 4.81GW/15.06GWh of new installed capacity in the U.S. energy storage market in Q1-Q3 2023, +29%/+39% year-on-year; according to EIA statistics, new U.S. energy storage capacity additions from January to November 2023 The installed capacity exceeds 5.42GW. In terms of cumulative installed capacity, as of 2023Q3, the cumulative installed capacity of the U.S. energy storage market is 15.87GW/44.14GWh.
2023Q3 energy storage installed capacity: In 2023Q3, the new installed capacity of the US energy storage market was 2.35GW/7.32GWh, +64%/+48% year-on-year, and +40%/+31% month-on-month. Among them, in 2023Q3, the newly installed capacity of utility energy storage in the United States was 2.16GW/6.85GWh, +71%/+52% year-on-year, and +43%/+34% month-on-month; the newly installed capacity of household energy storage was 0.17GW/0.38GWh, +71% year-on-year. 4%/-5%, +21%/+0% month-on-month; newly installed capacity of industrial and commercial energy storage was 0.03GW/0.09GWh, +3%/+37% year-on-year, +0%/-16% month-on-month.
Forecast of Energy Storage Installed Capacity in the United States
U.S. utility-level (above 1MW) energy storage installed capacity from January to November 2023: In November, the newly installed capacity of energy storage above 1MW in the U.S. was 0.43GW (the forecast value last month was 1.54GW), +438% year-on-year, and +43% month-on-month. 138%; from January to November 2023, the United States had 4.99GW of newly installed energy storage capacity of 1MW and above, a year-on-year increase of 30%.
Energy storage installed capacity forecast in 2023/2024: From December 2023 to the end of 2024, the new installed capacity of energy storage of 1MW and above is currently planned to reach 16.94GW; of which, the planned energy storage installed capacity in December 2023 is 2.35GW, that is The annual energy storage installed capacity in 2023 is expected to reach 7.35GW (prediction last month was 8.55GW), +78% year-on-year. The planned energy storage installed capacity in 2024 is 14.59GW (prediction last month: 14.91GW), +99% year-on-year. This planned installation data is continuously updated.
Inventory Status of Home Energy Storage in Europe and Global Installation Forecast
In 2023H1, the European household energy storage market demand increased by approximately 5.1GWh. Q2 has basically digested the inventory at the end of 2022 (5.2GWh), and the remaining inventory is approximately 6.4GWh, which is approximately 8 months of installed capacity in the European household energy storage market. According to EESA forecasts, the European household energy storage market size will reach 9.57GWh in 2023, and inventory clearance in the second half of the year will reach approximately 4.47GWh; inventory clearance will continue until the end of 2023, and European inventory levels will return to a reasonable scale (approximately 4.5GWh) by the end of 2023. GWh).
In 2023, major countries around the world are expected to add more than 12GWh of household storage installed capacity; in 2022, the global household energy storage market will add 7.38GWh of newly installed capacity, of which CR5 (Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States, and Australia) accounts for 75.6%. Among them, the new installed capacity of household energy storage in Germany will maintain strong growth in 2023, with the newly installed capacity reaching 3.51GWh in the first three quarters, an increase of 84% compared with the whole year of 2022. According to the current installation speed in Germany, it is expected that new installed capacity will be added in 2023. The newly installed capacity was 4.34GWh, +136% year-on-year.
Energy Storage Installed Capacity in Europe
European energy storage installed capacity in 2023H1: European energy storage has an installed capacity of 7.3GWh in 2023H1, of which household energy storage has an installed capacity of approximately 4.6GWh, and large energy storage and industrial and commercial energy storage have a total installed capacity of 2.7GWh. It is expected that Europe will have an installed capacity of 7.3GWh in 2023. The installed capacity will be 17GWh, of which household energy storage will have an installed capacity of 9GWh, and large-scale energy storage and industrial and commercial energy storage will have an installed capacity of 8GWh.
European energy storage installed capacity in 2022: Europe will achieve 4.5GW of energy storage installed capacity in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 80.9%, including approximately 2GW of large-scale energy storage and industrial and commercial energy storage, and approximately 2.5GW of household energy storage; among which, Germany will have a total of 2.5GW of energy storage capacity in 2022. The installed capacity was approximately 1.5GW, a year-on-year increase of 70.0%, of which Germany’s household energy storage installed capacity was 1.2GW, large storage installed capacity was 0.2GW, and industrial and commercial energy storage installed capacity was 0.1GW. Germany is the largest energy storage market in Europe. In 2022, Germany will account for approximately 34% of Europe’s installed energy storage capacity.
Domestic Charging Pile: Current Status and Developments
(1) In December 2023, 100,000 new public charging piles were added in the country, +51% year-on-year and -1% month-on-month; of which 54,000 DC charging piles were added, accounting for 54.1%, -4.3pct month-on-month. In 2023, 926,000 new public charging piles will be added in the country, +43% year-on-year; of which 442,000 new DC charging piles will be added, +52% year-on-year.
(2) As of December 2023, the number of domestic public charging piles is 2.726 million, of which 1.203 million DC charging piles, accounting for 44.1%, +1.8pct year-on-year and +0.3pct month-on-month.
(3) In December 2023, the incremental ratio of domestic vehicle piles will be 3.6; the incremental ratio of public vehicle piles will be 11.9.
(4) In December 2023, the total power of public charging piles nationwide was approximately 82.56 million kW, an increase of 4.77 million kW from the previous month; the charging pile utilization rate was approximately 6.20%, +0.46pct year-on-year and -0.12pct month-on-month.
(5) According to the forecast of the China Charging Alliance, 1.084 million new public charging piles are expected to be added in China in 2024, +17% year-on-year; of which 526,000 DC charging piles will be added, +19% year-on-year.
Overseas Charging Pile: Trends and Developments
EU 27 countries: As of the end of December 2023, the number of public charging piles in the EU 27 countries was 621,000, an increase of 17,000 from the end of the previous month; of which the number of DC piles was 77,300, an increase of 3,000 from the end of the previous month. Taiwan accounted for 12.4%, an increase of 0.1pct from the end of last month.
United States: As of the end of December 2023, the number of public charging piles in the United States was 160,000, an increase of 2,000 from the end of the previous month; of which the number of DC piles was 38,000, an increase of 1,000 from the end of the previous month, accounting for It was 23.4%, an increase of 0.3pct from the end of last month.
