End Users: Steady Penetration of Power, High Growth Momentum in Energy Storage Continues
China: Effective Consumer Subsidies, 2025 Policies Expected to Continue
Total volume: The subsidy policy has a good effect, and sales continue to increase.
In November, the new energy passenger car market retailed 1.268 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 50.5% and a month-on-month increase of 5.9%. From January to November 2024, retail sales were 9.594 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%. From January to November 2024, retail sales were 9.59 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 41%. In November, new energy passenger car exports were 80,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 7% and a month-on-month decrease of 33%. From January to November 2024, exports were 1.09 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 16%.
Structure: The penetration of mid- and low-end vehicles is sufficient, and the proportion of high-end vehicles is expected to increase further.
From January to October 2024, the penetration rates of new energy vehicles below RMB 100,000 and RMB 100,000 to RMB 200,000 reached 34.3% and 39.2% respectively, and the penetration rate increased rapidly. The penetration rate of high-end models above RMB 200,000 currently has a large room for improvement, and is expected to increase further in the future with the increase in the volume of models such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and Tesla.
Supply: There will be sufficient reserves of new models in 2024-2026, and high-quality supply will continue to increase.
Based on the statistics of the specific model planning numbers that have been publicly disclosed by various automakers, Chinese automakers will launch 380-390 new cars from 2024 to 2030 (covering independent/joint venture, new power brands; models include new/revamped models). Among them, about 330 new cars will be launched from 2024 to 2026, and at the same time, smart driving, fast charging, and high-energy density electric vehicle batteries will be accelerated in 25-26, and the proportion of high-quality supply will continue to increase.
Policy: With the increase in the consumption side, the subsidy policy is expected to continue.
At the national level, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2024 will be refined according to the purchase price of the car, with a subsidy of 10% of the purchase price for cars below RMB 150,000, 8% for cars between RMB 150,000 and RMB 300,000, and 6% for cars above RMB 300,000. At the same time, the policy of exemption from purchase tax will continue. From January 1, 2024 to December 31, 2025, the purchase of new energy vehicles will be exempted from vehicle purchase tax, with a maximum exemption of RMB 30,000 per vehicle. From January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2027, the tax will be halved, with the tax exemption not exceeding RMB 15,000. In addition, there have been changes in subsidies for car trade-ins. Among the national subsidies, a subsidy of RMB 20,000 is provided for scrapping fuel passenger cars with National III emission standards or below or specific new energy passenger cars and purchasing new energy passenger cars, and a subsidy of RMB 15,000 is provided for purchasing fuel passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less.
Europe: Sales are generally stable, carbon emissions are expected to support steady growth in 2025, and high-quality supply will increase in 2026.
European new energy passenger car sales from January to October 2024 were 2.32 million units, down 0.9% year-on-year. Among them, sales in October were 238,000 units, up 1% year-on-year. Europe will face greater economic pressure in 2024, resulting in lower-than-expected market demand. Looking ahead to 2025, we believe that Europe’s carbon emission policies are still constrained, and Europe will maintain steady growth in 2025.
United States: The overall sales trend will pick up in 2024. From January to September 2024, the US sales volume was 1.148 million vehicles, up 6% year-on-year.
Among them, the sales volume in October 2024 was 127,000 vehicles, down 3.1% year-on-year. Looking ahead, we believe that with the increase in the sales of pickup models such as Cybertruck and the supply-side drive such as the liberalization of autonomous driving, the overall growth is expected to maintain growth.
Global summary: China, the US and Europe continue to grow. The global penetration rate of new energy vehicles is generally showing a rapid upward trend, reaching 13% in 2022, 16% in 2023, and accelerating in 2024, with 15% in the first quarter, 18% in the second quarter, and 20.4% in the third quarter. From January to October 2024, China’s cumulative penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 37.7%, Germany reached 17.7%, Norway reached 70.7%, the United States 9.5%, and Japan 2.9%.
Energy Storage: Global Market Remains Robust, with Continued High Growth in 2025
Europe and the United States: Home energy storage battery system maintains growth, and commercial large-scale solar energy storage battery system takes over demand. We expect that in 2025, the installed capacity of large-scale energy storage systems in Europe will exceed that of household energy storage systems for the first time, becoming the main force driving the growth of the energy storage market.
Emerging markets: such as the Middle East, Chile, and South Africa, where carbon neutrality targets drive the growth of renewable energy deployment demand, but the lack or aging of infrastructure such as power grids has hindered wind and solar installations, and the retirement of coal-fired power has led to a decline in power generation, which in turn stimulates demand for energy storage.
We estimate that global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 21.01 million and 23.63 million in 2025-2026, with penetration rates of 23.7% and 26.2%. Combined with energy storage and other demands, the total demand for solar lithium ion batteries pack in 2024-2026 will be 1521, 1934, and 2332 Gwh, up 36%, 27%, and 21% year-on-year, respectively. In 2025, power, energy storage, and consumption will be 1198, 476, and 261 Gwh, respectively.
New Technologies: Solid-State Batteries, Silicon Anodes, Sodium Batteries, and Composite Collectors Expected to Achieve Commercialization
Sodium battery: It is expected to reach parity in the next three years, and some application scenarios are better than lithium battery. Sodium battery has the advantages of low cost, good high and low temperature stability, and good rate performance.
1) Sodium resources are abundant, widely distributed, low cost, and have no development bottleneck.
2) Sodium ion batteries have excellent rate performance and high and low temperature performance.
3) Sodium ion batteries do not catch fire or explode in safety tests, and have good safety performance. It is expected that sodium battery and lithium battery will reach parity in 2026.
Supply chain: The sodium battery manufacturing process is similar to that of lithium batteries. The core is incremental raw materials, and the main marginal increments are hard carbon and positive electrodes.
