Rokiroki Pungao Kainga: Te Tipu Kaha i te Maakete Ahia
Te Maakete o te Ao: He rereke te hiahia mo te rokiroki hiko o te kaainga ki tawahi, ko nga maakete hou e kaha ana te tipu
Te taha tono: Kua whakarāpopotohia, kua tatauhia e matou ko te kaha o te rokiroki hiko whare o te ao ka tata ki te 10.4GW i te tau 2023, ka ruarua mai i te 2022, me te maakete Pakeha me te maakete o Awherika ki te Tonga e tipu haere ana. I te tau 2023, ka noho tonu a Uropi te kaha nui ki nga whakaurunga rokiroki hiko whare o te ao, e 65% o te kaha whakauru o te ao, a ka tere te tipu o te kaha whakauru. I te tau 2024, na te whakakotahitanga o te hekenga moni me te nui o te urunga ki roto i nga maakete nui, ka heke te kaha o te rokiroki hiko whare a te whare Pakeha; i te wa ano, ko te maakete o Amerika me nga maakete ka puta mai i Ahia, Awherika me Amerika Latina e tika ana kia kite i te tipu o te kaha whakauru. E matapae ana matou ko te kaha o te rokiroki hiko whare o te ao ka mau tonu ki te 10.4GW i te tau 2024 ka piki paku ki te 11.5GW i te tau 2025.
Maakete Pakeha: E tumanako ana a EASE kia 4.6GW/4.2GW i te tau 2024/2025, ka heke te tono kaha whakauru. I te tau 2023, ko te kaha whakaurunga o te rokiroki hiko whare i Uropi i mau tonu te tipu o te tipu. Ko te EASE (European Energy Storage Association) i kii ko te kaha hou i whakauruhia i te 2023 ka 6.9GW, he pikinga tau-tau o 130%, me Tiamana me Itari e arahi ana i te tipu nui o te kaha whakauru. E whakapono ana a EASE i muri i te pikinga nui o te kaha whakauru i te tau 2023, ka heke te kaha whakauru o te rokiroki hiko whare i Uropi. E rua nga take: Tuatahi, kua heke te kaha whakauru ki nga maakete nui. I te mea ko te maakete matua mo te rokiroki hiko whare i Uropi, he nui te tere o te whakaurunga o nga whakaahua whakaahua whare me te rokiroki hiko o Tiamana (e ai ki a BNEF, ko te reiti rokiroki whakaahua hou o te whare i Germany i te tau 2023 i tae ki te 78%). I te tere haere o te tipu o nga photovoltaics whare, ka heke te kaha whakauru i te tau 2024, a ka heke te tere o te tipu o muri mai. Tuarua, ka heke nga putea i roto i nga maakete maha. I te tau 2023, ko te rokiroki hiko whare i Itari i tere ki te whakauru i te ahiahi o te hekenga o te tahua, na te tipu o te katoa o te kaha whakauru o te rokiroki hiko whare i Uropi; i te tau 2024, i te hekenga o nga putea i Itari, Spain me Belgium, ka pehia te tono mo nga whakaurunga rokiroki hiko whare.
Maakete US: E kiia ana ko te kaha whakaurunga hou mo te rokiroki hiko whare ka 1.5GW/1.7GW i te 2024/2025, me te reeti tipu o te 110%/15% ia. I te 2023, ko te kaha hou kua whakauruhia mo te rokiroki hiko whare i te United States ka 0.7GW / 1.6GWh, me te tere o te tipu hiko o te 41%. I te tau 2023, ka whai mana te kaupapa here NEM 3.0 a California i te Paenga-whawha 15, 2023, ka huri i te tauira hua o nga punaha rokiroki photovoltaic whare. Kua tino heke te hua o nga punaha photovoltaic whare parakore. I te wa ano, ko te kaha ohaoha o te whare photovoltaic + rokiroki pūngao "whakatupuranga-whaiaro me te whakamahi-whaiaro" tauira he tino rongonui, a ko te hiahia mo te rokiroki hiko whare kua puta te tipu. Ko te whakaaro ko te NEM 3.0 ka arahi ki te heke o nga whakaurunga photovoltaic whare i roto i te United States, i te mea ka piki ake te tauwehenga rokiroki, ka piki ake te hiahia mo te rokiroki hiko whare. E matapae ana a SEIA ka heke te kaha whakaurunga o nga whakaahua hiko whare ki Amerika ma te 13% i te tau 2024, ko te nuinga o te paanga o te kaupapa here inenga kupenga a California me nga reiti huamoni. E matapaetia ana ka heke te kaha whakauru o nga whakaahua hiko whare i California ma te 40% tau-a-tau; E tohu ana a WoodMackenzie i raro i te mana o te NEM 3.0, ko te tauwehenga rokiroki o nga photovoltaics whare i California ka eke ki te 60% i te 2024, ka pana te tauwehenga rokiroki toharite i te United States mai i te 14% i te 2023 ki te 25% i te 2024. I runga i te waahanga o runga ake nei. , ki ta matou whakaaro ko te kaha whakaurunga o te rokiroki hiko whare i te United States ka piki ki te 1.5GW i te 2024, he tau-i-te-tau piki o 110%.
Ko etahi atu maakete: tae atu ki a Japan, Africa, Middle East, Tonga Asia, Latin America me etahi atu rohe. Ko te whakaaro ko te kaha whakaurunga hou o te rokiroki hiko whare ki etahi atu maakete ka 3.9/5.1GW i te 2024/2025. Hei taapiri atu ki nga maakete rokiroki hiko e wha o te ao, Haina, Uropi, Amerika me Ahitereiria, ko etahi atu maakete ko te nuinga ko Japan, Awherika, Middle East, Tonga Asia, Latin America me etahi atu rohe. I te tau 2022/2023, ko te tapeke o te kaha whakaurunga o te rokiroki hiko i roto i "etahi atu maakete" i tua atu i nga maakete e wha o runga (tae atu ki te penapena hiko nui-nui, te rokiroki hiko whare, me te rokiroki hiko ahumahi me te arumoni) mo te 10%/9% o te ao ia. I te mea he iti te rahinga o etahi atu maakete me te marara, ka whakamahia e matou te wahanga o te katoa o te kaha whakaurunga o te ao ki te whakatau tata, ki te whakaaro ko te tapeke o te kaha whakaurunga o te rokiroki hiko i roto i "etahi atu maakete" ka 10% o te kaha o te ao. te rokiroki kua whakauruhia te kaha ki te 2024/2025. (E whakaaro ana matou ko te kaha whakaurunga hou o te rokiroki hiko hou o te ao ka eke ki te 65.2/84.5GW i te 2024/2025. Ma te whakaaro ki te nui o Hapani me Awherika i roto i "etahi atu maakete", me te tipu tere o Ahia ki te Tonga, ko te nuinga o nga momo rokiroki hiko kua whakauruhia he rokiroki whare. Ki ta matou whakaaro ko te kaha whakaurunga o te rokiroki hiko nui / rokiroki hiko whare / rokiroki hiko ahumahi me te arumoni i roto i "etahi atu maakete" e 2024% / 35% / 60% ia. I te 5/2024, ko te katoa o te kaha whakaurunga o te penapena hiko whare ki etahi atu maakete ka eke ki te 2025 / 3.9GW, a ko nga maakete ka puta mai ka nui te tipu o te kaha whakauru.
Whenua Whakataetae Ao o te Maakete Rokiroki Pungao Nohonoho
Taha Tuku: Ko Ūropi me ngā mākete hou te atamira matua mō ngā umanga ā-rohe, ā, ka mau tonu te mahi tino pai a ētahi umanga i raro i te rerekētanga o te tono. Ko te mākete rokiroki pūngao ā-whare o te ao e whakaatu ana i te āhuatanga o te "wehenga toa", ā, he rerekē ngā waitohu matua i roto i ngā mākete ā-motu rerekē. I te nuinga o te wā kei roto i ēnei ko ngā umanga ā-rohe e tata ana, pērā i a Enphase, Tesla i te Hononga o Amerika, me Sonnen i Tiamana; kei roto hoki i ēnei ko ngā waitohu ā-rohe kua roa e whakatipuhia ana i roto i tētahi, i ētahi whenua rānei, ā, kua whakapumautia te ingoa waitohu me te pūnaha ratonga, pērā i a PYLONTECH, BYD, me SmartPropel Energy.
I tenei wa, kei te kaha te kaha o nga umanga rokiroki hiko whare kaainga ki te maakete Pakeha me nga maakete hou penei i Ahia ki te Tonga me Awherika ki te Tonga, ko te maakete o Amerika kei te ahua OEM. Ko te kaha o te hua, te whakatakotoranga hongere me te kaha o nga ratonga te tino whakataetae o nga umanga rokiroki hiko whare. Whai muri i nga tau o te whakaemi, ka whai ingoa nga umanga nui ki o raatau maakete whaihua. I te tau 2024, ka puhoi te tipu o te rokiroki hiko whare o te ao, engari ko te tono i roto i nga maakete rereke i whakaatu he rerekee, a, he pai ake te tipu o nga maakete hou i tera o te maakete Pakeha. Ko nga umanga me te whakatakotoranga e aro nui atu ana ki nga maakete ka puta ake me te wahanga o te maakete matua i roto i nga maakete hou e tika ana kia tutuki nga mahi tino pai.
Ko nga ahuatanga motuhake o nga maakete ka puta ake mo te rokiroki hiko whare he rereke, engari he rite etahi o nga ahuatanga o te maakete me te tono hua:
(1) Nga tikanga ohaoha-hapori: te nuinga o nga whenua whakawhanake, he nui te taupori taupori, teitei ake te tipu ohaoha i nga maakete whakawhanakehia, me te waahi hiko nui.
(2) Nga ahuatanga o te kaha: nga rauemi tino pai penei i te marama, te kaha pai mo te whanaketanga o te hiko whakahou; he iti rawa te whakaratonga o te hiko matatoka (te nuinga ka whakawhirinaki ki nga kawemai), me te tono mo te mana motuhake. He ngoikore te tuku me te tohatoha o nga hanganga, kaore i te pumau te hiko hiko, ka raru nga kaiwhakamahi i te mate hiko.
(3) Te tono mo te rokiroki hiko o te whare: he ahua ngawari nga kaiwhakamahi ki nga utu me te whai i nga hua whai hua; Ko te tuku hiko te tono tuatahi, a he tono mo nga hua-a-waho me nga hua hono-maiti; Ko nga taonga rokiroki whare me nga taputapu hiko penei i nga miihini diesel he hononga whakakapinga me te hononga taapiri.
Te Maakete o Ahia ki te Rawhiti: Kei te tipu haere te tono mo te Rokiroki Pungao Noho Noho Na te Mahinga Hiko Tiaki
Tirohanga o Ahia ki te Tonga. Kei te tonga-rawhiti o Ahia ki te tonga-rawhiti o Ahia, ka uru ki nga whenua 11: Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, me East Timor. Ko nga whenua katoa i runga ake nei he whenua whakawhanake engari ko Singapore. Ko Ahia ki te tonga-rawhiti kei roto i te ngahuru, he pai rawa nga rauemi o te ra, me te kaha ki te whakawhanake i te kaha whakahou. E rua nga wahanga nui o Ahia ki te Tonga: ko te Indochina Peninsula me te Moutere o Malay.
Indochina Peninsula: Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia kei roto i te Indochina Peninsula. Ko Indochina Peninsula kei te tonga o Haina. Ko te whenua he "maunga me nga awa rereke, ka tohatohahia ki nga pou poutū". He teitei te whenua ki te raki, he iti ki te tonga. He maunga te raki, he nui te maturuturunga iho o te awa, he nui nga rawa o te hiko wai; ko te tonga he mania me nga awaawa, he whenua papatahi me te ohanga ahua ake. Koinei te waahi nui o te kai hiko me te waahi pai mo te whakawhanaketanga o te photovoltaics. Ko nga raru nui e pa ana ki nga punaha hiko o nga whenua o te Indochina Peninsula ko: he iti rawa te rahui o te hiko parakapoka, te hiko hiko, te koretake i waenga i te whakaputa hiko me nga pokapu kai, me te ngoikore o nga hanganga matiti, e arai ana ki nga utu hiko teitei mo nga kainoho me te hiahia ki te whakawhanake. pūnaha rokiroki pūngao whare.
Nga Moutere o Malay: Neke atu i te 20,000 nga motu, no Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines me etahi atu whenua. He nui nga rawa hinu me te hau o Malay Archipelago, a ko te nuinga o te hiko he hiko waiariki. He ahua marara noa nga moutere o Malay Archipelago, he uaua ki te whakatakoto i te hiko hiko. He ngoikore te hanganga matiti. I tua atu, he whakatuma mo nga aitua taiao penei i nga awhiowhio me nga puia. Me whakauru nga kainoho ki te whakauru i nga punaha rokiroki photovoltaic kua tohatohahia me waho-matiti kia pai ai te tuku hiko.
Mahere Rohe o Ahia ki te Tonga
Kei te tere haere te hiahia mo te rokiroki hiko whare i te tonga-tonga o Ahia, e arahina ana e nga Philippines, Myanmar, me Vietnam. He rereke nga ahuatanga o te motu o nga maakete nui i te tonga o Ahia, engari he ahuatanga noa: he pai rawa nga rauemi photovoltaic, ngoikore ngoikore o te hiko, te tipu tere o te tono hiko, me te nuinga o nga whenua whakawhanake. Na reira, ko te tono mo nga hua rokiroki whare ko te nuinga o te utu-utu + hua-a-waho. Na te hekenga o nga utu i roto i te mekameka umanga rokiroki pūngao, ko te tono mo te rokiroki hiko whare ki te Tonga o Ahia kua puta he pahū, kua puta ake he maakete taumata-GW.
Mai i Hanuere ki Mei 2024, ko te tapeke o nga kaihurihuri i kaweake e taku whenua ki te Tonga ki te Tonga o Ahia ko te RMB 1.25 piriona, he pikinga tau-a-tau o 25%, a he pai ake te tipu o te tipu i era atu rohe o te ao. Mai i Hanuere tae atu ki Mei, ko nga maakete e rima o runga mo nga kawe whakawhiti whakawhiti o taku whenua ki te tonga-tonga o Ahia ko Thailand, Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam, me Malaysia, a ko te uara kaweake o nga maakete e rima e 90% o nga kaweake hurihanga o taku whenua ki te Tonga. Ahia. I roto ia ratou, ko te tono inverter i roto i te Philippines, Myanmar, me Vietnam ko te nuinga rokiroki pūngao whare, te tono inverter i Thailand te nuinga photovoltaic (arumoni me te ahumahi / pokapū), me te tono inverter i Malaysia te nuinga photovoltaic whare. Ko nga Philippines, Myanmar, me Vietnam te arahi i te tipu o te maakete rokiroki hiko whare i te tonga o Ahia.
Philippines: Nā te hiahia ohorere o ngā kainoho mō te hiko, kei te kaha te mākete rokiroki hiko o ngā whare. Neke atu i te 7,000 ngā moutere o Philippines, me ngā whenua marara me ngā hanganga whatunga ngoikore. Hei tāpiri, he maha ngā āhuatanga taiao pēnei i ngā awhiowhio me ngā rū whenua, ā, he nui ngā motu hiko o ngā kaiwhakamahi whare. He nui te hiahia o ngā kainoho mō te hiko tārua. Ko ngā kamupene tuku hiko i Philippines he mea tūmataiti te nuinga, ā, he teitei ngā utu hiko o ngā whare noho. I te Hakihea 2023, ko ā rātou utu hiko whare noho i eke ki te US$0.20/kWh. Ka taea e ngā pire hiko whare o ngā kainoho Filipino te eke ki te neke atu i te 15% o ā rātou moni whiwhi. Hei tāpiri, e ai ki ngā tatauranga mai i te Tari Pūngao o Philippines, tae noa ki Hune 2023, tata ki te 8.85%, neke atu rānei i te 2.45 miriona whare i Philippines kāore anō kia whiwhi hiko. Nā te hiahia mō te hiko me te tārua, me te penapena pire hiko, ka ārahi te hiahia mō te rokiroki hiko photovoltaic whare i Philippines ki te tipu. Ki te whakatauritea ki ngā miihini hiko tīhi e whakamahia ana mō te hiko tārua, he pai ngā pūnaha rokiroki photovoltaic o te whare, arā, he ma, he kore haruru. Nā te hekenga tere o te utu o ngā pūnaha rokiroki photovoltaic me te pūngao, kei te kitea te au i roto i te mākete o Piripīni ki te whakamahi i ngā pūnaha rokiroki photovoltaic hei whakakapi i te whakaputanga tīhi, hei tāpiri atu rānei. E matapaetia ana e te Tari Pūngao o Piripīni ka eke te kaha hou o te whenua ki te 1.98GW, ā, ka eke te kaha hou o te pūngao pākahiko ki te 590MW i te tau 2024.
Myanmar: Ka whakaratohia e te rokiroki hiko pūngao me te pūngao ā-whare he piringa mō te hunga ngoikore. Ki te whakatauritea ki ētahi atu mākete nui, he rawakore ake a Myanmar, ā, kāore i te rawaka te kapinga o te pūnaha hiko. I te tau 2019, tata ki te 58% o te taupori, tata ki te 30 miriona tāngata rānei, kāore i hono ki te whatunga matua. I raro i te raruraru tōrangapū me te rawakore ōhanga, kua tino pāngia te kaha whakaputa hiko me te tuku me te tohatoha o te pūnaha hiko o Myanmar. Kei te pāngia te tuku hiko o Myanmar e ngā raruraru pēnei i te kati o ngā tipu hiko nui e whakamahia ana te hau me te puhoi o te whakatinanatanga o ngā whakaurunga whakaputa hiko hou. Kei te whānui haere tonu te āputa i waenga i te tuku hiko me te tono; i te wa ano, kua pāngia te wātea o ngā whakaurunga tuku e ngā whakaeke me te kino ki te whatunga hiko i te wā o te pakanga. I pūrongo te World Bank mai i te tau 2021, kua pāngia a Myanmar e ngā momo motu hiko roa puta noa i te motu, ā, kua piki ake ngā utu wahie. He pai ngā rauemi hihi o te rā o Myanmar, ā, he huarahi nui ngā pūnaha rokiroki hiko pūngao me te pūngao tohatoha hei whakatairanga i te hiko me te whakaiti i te rawakore mō ngā kainoho o te whenua. E whai ana ngā whakahaere toko i te ora o te iwi pērā i te World Bank me te Smart Power Myanmar ki te whakarato hiko ki ngā kainoho i ngā wāhi rawakore me ngā wāhi kāore i te whai whatunga hiko, me te whakapai ake i tō rātou kaha ki te ātete i ngā mōrearea mā te whakamahi i ngā pūnaha rokiroki hiko pūngao me te pūngao o te rā mō ngā whare.
Whitināmu: Ko te kaha o te pūngao PV kei te tū hei tuatahi i roto i te ASEAN, ā, kei te tere haere te whanaketanga o ngā pūnaha rokiroki photovoltaic waho-whatunga. He rerekē te hanganga whakamahinga pūngao o Whitināmu, ko te mana wai me te mana waro te nuinga i te raki, ā, ko te mana photovoltaic te nuinga i te tonga. He rite te āhua o te whenua o Whitināmu ki te "paera", he nui ngā pito me te wāhanga waenga whaiti. Kāore e ōrite te taunga whenua o te tuku pūngao me te tono kawenga, kei raro i te pēhanga nui te whatunga tuku, ā, kei reira te raruraru "korenga o te mana hanganga". He pai ake ngā rauemi photovoltaic o Whitināmu, ā, ko te kaha tāuta katoa o te mana photovoltaic i te tau 2022 ka eke ki te 16.4GW, ko te tū hei tuatahi i roto i ngā whenua tekau o te ASEAN. I te marama o Āperira 2024, i whakaaetia e Vietnam te "Mahere Whakawhanake Mana ā-Motu 2021-2030" (PDP 8), me te whakamahere ki te tāpiri i te 2.6GW o te hiko photovoltaic tuanui-whaiaro me te 300MW o ngā kaupapa rokiroki pūngao pākahiko nui ki te whatunga hiko i te tau 2030. Me mārama, nā te nui o te pēhanga ki runga i te whatunga hiko o Vietnam, kei te taha kaupapa here te ia o te whakatairanga i ngā kaiwhakamahi ki te whakaputa hiko me te whakamahi mā rātou anō. I tēnei wā, kua pau katoa ngā tahua tautoko FiT e hono ana ki te whatunga photovoltaic ā-whare o Vietnam. Kāore e taea e ngā kaiwhakamahi photovoltaic ā-whare te whiwhi moni mā te whatunga-hono, ā, me whakarite rokiroki hei whakapai ake i ō rātou kaha whakaputa me te whakamahi-whaiaro. I roto i ngā tau 10 mai i te 2021 ki te 2030, ki te eke te tauine tāutanga photovoltaic tuanui hou ki te 2.6GW me te 100% he rokiroki, ka hiahiatia he toharite ā-tau mō te rokiroki pūngao ā-whare o te 260MW neke atu rānei.
Thailand: He iti ngā kaupapa here mō te rokiroki pūngao o te whare, ā, ko ngā photovoltaic kua tohatohahia e ngā ahumahi me ngā arumoni te nuinga o ngā whakaurunga pūngao whakahou. Ko te hanganga pūngao o Thailand te nuinga o te mana wera, ā, kāore i te rawaka āna ake rahui pūngao pūmua. Ka whakawhirinaki te hau māori ki ngā kawemai, nō reira he hihiri ki te whakawhanake i te pūngao whakahou me te whakarite i te haumarutanga pūngao. Ko te nuinga o te kaha tāuta photovoltaic o Thailand ko ngā teihana hiko pokapū, ā, ko te pikinga ko ngā photovoltaic tuanui ahumahi me te arumoni. E ai ki ngā raraunga IEA, i te tau 2020, ko te kaha tāuta photovoltaic o Thailand he 3.94GW, ko te 3.08GW o ēnei he teihana hiko pokapū (e 78%); ko te kaha tāuta photovoltaic hou he 144MW, ko te 125MW o ēnei he photovoltaic tuanui ahumahi me te arumoni (e 87%), ā, ko ngā photovoltaic whare anake i tāpirihia e 2.2MW. Ka whakaratohia e Thailand he tautoko utu hiko e hono ana ki te whatunga FiT mō ngā teihana hiko tohatoha (te rokiroki photovoltaic/photovoltaic), engari kāore te kaupapa here e whakarato i ngā whakatenatena e ranea ana mō ngā kaiwhakamahi rokiroki photovoltaic o te whare, ā, he iti te tapeke o te kaha tautoko (100MW/tau), nō reira kāore anō kia whakawhanakehia te rokiroki photovoltaic o te whare. Heoi, i runga i te whakaaro ki ngā utu hiko teitei ake o Thailand ki ērā atu whenua ASEAN me ōna rauemi photovoltaic pai rawa atu, he wāhi tipu anō kei te heke mai mō te rokiroki photovoltaic o te whare.
Mareia: Ka whakatairanga a NEM i te whanaketanga o ngā photovoltaics tohatoha, ā, kāore i te tino kitea te hiahia mō te rokiroki pūngao o te whare. He wāhi nui a Mareia i roto i te mekameka ahumahi photovoltaic o te ao, ā, he maha ngā kamupene pūtau me ngā wāhanga photovoltaic Hainamana, Amerika me Kōrea kua whakamahi i te kaha whakaputa i roto i te whenua. Ko te hanganga pūngao o te whenua ko te mana wera te nuinga, ā, ko te kaha tāuta o te pūngao whakahou kore-wai he 6% noa iho i te tau 2022. Kei te kaha te whakatairanga a Mareia i te whakawhiti pūngao. I te marama o Hūrae 2023, i tukuna e Mareia te Mahere Whakawhiti Pūngao ā-Motu (NETR), me te whakamahere kia eke ki te 31% o te kaha tāuta o te pūngao whakahou i te tau 2025, 40% i te tau 2035, me te 70% i te tau 2050. Mō ngā photovoltaics nui, i whakarewahia e te whenua he kaupapa tono whakataetae pūngao rā nui (LSS) hei whakaiti i ngā utu photovoltaic. I te marama o Āperira 2024, i whakarewahia te tuarima o ngā rauna tono (LSS 5) me te tauine o te 2GW hei whakatairanga i ngā tāutanga photovoltaic whenua me te arumoni; Mō ngā kaupapa tohatoha, ka whakaratohia e te whenua ngā otinga ine kupenga NEM mō ngā kaiuru photovoltaic (ngā kainoho, ngā arumoni me ngā ahumahi, ngā whare kāwanatanga), ā, ka taea te tango katoa i te hiko toenga i hangaia e ngā photovoltaic tohatoha mai i ngā utu hiko. I raro i te kaupapa here NEM, kei ngā kaiwhakamahi whare noho te hihiri ki te tāuta photovoltaic whare, engari kāore i te rawaka te hihiri mō te rokiroki.
Ko te maakete rokiroki hiko whare i te tonga o Ahia ka nui ake i te 1GW i te 2024. E ai ki nga whaainga whakamahere i whakarāpopotohia i roto i te tuhinga o mua, ko te katoa o te kaha whakauru o te rokiroki hiko whare i roto i nga Philippines me Vietnam anake ka eke ki te 0.85GW i te 2024. Ma te whakaaro ki te kaha o te tono mo te rahui hiko o te whare me te hanga-whaiaro i nga Philippines, Myanmar me Vietnam, tae atu ki te kaha o te urunga o te rokiroki hiko whare ki nga maakete penei i Thailand, Malaysia me Indonesia, me tumanako ka eke te kaha whakaurunga o te rokiroki hiko whare i te tonga-tonga o Ahia ki te neke atu i te 1GW i te tau 2024. Ko Ahia ki te Rawhiti kua piki ake te maakete rokiroki hiko whare taumata-GW.
Pakistan me Inia: Te pikinga o te tono mo te rokiroki hiko o te ra, engari he koretake te kaupapa here kei mua
Pakistan me Inia: He kaha te mahi tono mo te rokiroki hiko o te ra. Mai i Hanuere tae atu ki Mei 2024, ko nga kaweake hurihanga a Haina ki te maakete Ahia i tere te tipu o ia tau, ko Pakistan me Inia te koha nui rawa atu. I roto i tenei waa, i kaweake e Haina nga kaihurihuri te 1.25 piriona RMB ki Pakistan, he nui te pikinga 252% i ia tau, na te mea ko Pakistan te maakete nui rawa atu mo nga kaweake hurihanga a Haina i Ahia mo Hanuere-Mei 2024, mo te uara kaweake me te tipu. reiti. Ko nga kaihurihuri i kaweake ki Inia i wariuhia ki te 1.17 piriona RMB, he 85% te pikinga o ia tau. Ko Pakistan me Inia, kei Ahia ki te Tonga, ka whai hua mai i te nui o te ra me te tere o te ohanga me te tipu o te taupori, e akiaki ana i te hiahia mo te hiko me te hiahia mo te whakawhanaketanga o te hiko whakahou. Heoi, ko enei maakete he tono mo te whakawhanake i o raatau ake mekameka ahumahi photovoltaic, tera pea ka puta he koretake mo te tono kaweake a meake nei.
Pakistan: Te Tiaki Hiko Tiaki me te pikinga o nga Utu Hiko Ka Peia Nga Taonga Rokiroki Pungao Nohonoho, Te Whakatere i te Whakaaetanga Pahiko Lithium
He maha nga mate o te hiko, me te hiahia o nga kaiwhakamahi mo te hiko taapiri. E ai ki te 36 Carbon Analysis, ko te whakaaro i muri i te pahūtanga o te tono rokiroki photovoltaic whare i Pakistan he rite ki tera o te maakete o Awherika ki te Tonga o mua, ko enei e rua he tono mana hiko i puta mai i te aukati hiko me te mate hiko. Ko te kaha o te hiko o Pakistan te nuinga o te hiko waiariki, engari he iti rawa ona rahui hiko parapara, ka whakawhirinaki ki nga kawemai, me te punaha hiko he iti rawa te kaha whakangao hiko; i te wa ano, he ngoikore, he tawhito hoki nga waahi tuku hiko me nga waahi tohatoha, me te kaha o te hiko o te hiko i roto i nga wa o te kaha o te kaha o te kaha o te kaha penei i te hotoke me te raumati, a kua riro te korenga o te hiko hei tikanga. Kei te hiahia nga kaiwhakamahi mo te rokiroki whare mo te mana whakaora ohorere.
Kei te piki haere tonu nga utu hiko, e akiaki ana i te hihiko o nga kaiwhakamahi ki te hanga-whaiaro me te whakamahi-whaiaro. Kia whiwhi tautoko putea motuhake mai i te International Monetary Fund (IMF), kua piki ake nga mana o Pakistan i nga utu hiko i nga wa maha i roto i nga tau e toru kua pahure ake nei hei whakanui ake i nga moni i roto i te waahanga hiko. E ai ki nga kaipāho a-rohe Pakistan Today, ko te pikinga utu hou i puta i te marama o Hurae 2024, a ko te utu hiko taketake mo te tau moni 2024-2025 ka piki mai i te 29.78 rupee/kWh ki te 35.50 rupee/kWh, he pikinga 19%. I raro i te pehanga o te piki haere tonu o nga utu hiko, ka kaha nga kaiwhakamahi ki te whakakii i a raatau ano ki nga punaha rokiroki photovoltaic me te penapena utu hiko.
Kua huri te kaupapa here mai i te "inenga kupenga" (NEM) ki te "inenga katoa", ka piki ake pea te rahinga o te rokiroki photovoltaic whare. I te marama o Mei 2024, i kii te kawanatanga a te kawanatanga o Pakistan ka whakakorehia e ia te inenga kupenga solar ka huri ki te "inenga katoa". Ka iti ake te utu mo nga whakaahua hiko whare e hoko hiko ana ki te matiti i tana utu hiko. Ko tenei huringa kaupapa here ka pakaru te kaha ohaoha o nga whakaahua hiko o te whare, ka heke te hiahia o te whare whakaahua, engari i te wa ano, ka piki ake te waahanga o te rokiroki whakaahua o te whare, me te hiahia nga kaiwhakamahi ki te whakamahi i nga pākahiko rokiroki hiko kia piki ake. te wahanga o te "whakatupuranga-whaiaro me te whakamahi-whaiaro". I te hekenga o te utu mo te rokiroki whare, ka kaha ake nga kaiwhakamahi ki te whakakii i nga photovoltaic whare ki te rokiroki.
Na te tipu haere tonu o nga whakaurunga photovoltaic me te kuhu haere o te rokiroki whare, he whanui te waahi o te maakete, engari he koretake kei te taha kaupapa here. E ai ki te "Mahere Whakawhanake Whakanui Whakanui Hiko Hiko (IGCEP 2022-2031)" a Pakistan, ka taapirihia e te whenua te 13.67GW o te kaha whakauru whakaahua i roto i nga tau tekau mai i te 2022 ki te 2031, ka whakauruhia te 4.32GW ki te taha kaiwhakamahi, a e tika ana kia neke atu i te 400MW te tau toharite o te tau hou o te whare photovoltaic. I te wa roa, kei te haere tonu te hiahia o nga kaiwhakamahi mo te hiko kounga teitei me te utu iti, me te whakaaro tonu kia uru tonu nga whakaurunga whakamaarama whakaahua me te rokiroki hiko o te whare. Me tohu kei te hiahia a Pakistan ki te whakawhanake takitahi i te mekameka ahumahi photovoltaic, a tera pea etahi ahuatanga koretake mo te tono kaweake a meake nei.
Inia: Ka Whakanuihia te Maakete Rokiroki Hiko Hiko Hiko Maakete Rokiroki Hiko Hiko
He nui te whāinga tipu o te kaha tāuta photovoltaic. E ai ki a Infolink Consulting, i te tau 2023, i tukuna e te kāwanatanga o Īnia te Mahere Hiko ā-Motu (NEP) mō te tau 2022-2032, e matapaetia ana ka eke ki te 337 GW o te kaha tāuta katoa o te pūngao whakahou i te tau 2026-2027, ko te photovoltaics ka eke ki te 186 GW, neke atu i te 50%. E ai ki ngā raraunga kaha tāuta MNRE, i te mutunga o te tau 2023, ko te kaha tāuta photovoltaic o Īnia ka eke ki te 73.3 GW, ko te tikanga me tāpiri e Īnia neke atu i te 110 GW o te kaha tāuta photovoltaic i roto i ngā tau 3-4.
Mā te tautoko a ngā tautoko nui me ngā kaupapa here ine kupenga, kei te tere te whanaketanga o ngā photovoltaic whare. E tautoko kaha ana a Īnia i ngā whakaurunga photovoltaic tohatoha. Ka taea e ngā kaiwhakamahi photovoltaic whare te whiwhi tautoko whakaurunga photovoltaic tuanui neke atu i te 40% o te utu hoko mai i te kāwanatanga matua me te kawanatanga kei reira rātou, me te whiwhi i ngā whakakorenga taake moni whiwhi, ngā nama iti-huamoni, te ine kupenga hei penapena pire hiko me ētahi atu painga. E ai ki ngā tatauranga mai i JMKresearch, he tari kaitohutohu ā-rohe o Īnia, i te tau 2023, ka eke te kaha hou kua tāutahia o Īnia mō ngā photovoltaic pokapū me ngā photovoltaic whare tuanui ki te 6.5GW me te 3.0GW. E matapaetia ana e te tari i te tau 2024, e matapaetia ana ka whai kaha hou kua tāutahia o Īnia ngā photovoltaic pokapū me ngā photovoltaic whare tuanui ki te 15.9GW me te 4.2GW. Kei te tere te tipu o te kaha kua tāutahia o Īnia mō ngā photovoltaic whare. I raro i ngā tautoko nui, he iti noa te pēhanga ōhanga a ngā kaiwhakamahi ki te hoko photovoltaic whare. Ka taea e ngā kaiwhakamahi te whiriwhiri ki te tāpiri i te rokiroki hiko o te whare hei kōwhiringa pai ake hei whakarite i te tuku hiko. I te mea kei te piki haere te hiahia mō te hiko tārua a ngā kaiwhakamahi me te ia o te whakahekenga utu o te mekameka umanga pākahiko lithium, e matapaetia ana ka piki haere te tere urunga o te rokiroki hiko o te whare.
Nā te motuhanga o te hiko, ka hiahiatia he hiko tārua mō ngā kaiwhakamahi. He āputaputa hoki ngā pūnaha hiko o Īnia, ā, he ngoikore hoki ngā whakaurunga tuku hiko, ā, ka maha ngā motuhanga hiko. I pūrongo a Reuters nā te hekenga nui o te whakaputa hiko wai me te whakaroa i te whakatūnga o tētahi tipu hiko waro 3.6GW i whakaritea kia whakamahia i te marama o Poutū-te-rangi, e matapaetia ana e te kāwanatanga o Īnia ka pāngia te whenua e te korenga hiko nui rawa atu i roto i ngā tau 14 i te marama o Hune 2024, ā, ko te korenga hiko teitei rawa atu ka eke ki te 14.2GW i te pō i te raumati. He nui ake te raruraru motuhanga hiko mō ngā kaiwhakamahi whare o Īnia. E ai ki ngā raraunga a Statista, i whakaatuhia i roto i tētahi rangahau o te 13,000 kaiwhakamahi hiko whare i Īnia i te marama o Mei 2023, e 57% o ngā kaiwhakautu i kī he motuhanga hiko mō ō rātou whānau tae atu ki te 2 hāora ia rā, ā, 37% o ngā whare he motuhanga hiko neke atu i te 2 hāora. Me hoko e ngā kaiwhakamahi Īnia ngā pūnaha rokiroki whare hei whakarato hiko tārua mō te kāinga. Ki te tangohia e tātou te matapae o te 4.2GW o te kaha photovoltaic hou o te whare i te tau 2024 e te rangahau a JMK i whakahuatia ake nei, ā, ki te whakaaro tātou kei te 20% o ngā photovoltaic whare i Inia he rokiroki pūngao i te tau 2024, e matapaetia ana ka eke te kaha rokiroki whare hou ā-tau ki te 840MW, ā, e matapaetia ana ka neke atu te tono rokiroki whare i Pakitāne me Inia i te 1GW.
E tautoko kaha ana a Īnia i te mekameka ahumahi rokiroki hiko me te pūngao ā-rohe, ā, e whakawhāiti ana i te kaweake o ngā wāhanga ā-rohe, engari kāore he here i whakatakotoria ki te hononga inverter. E tautoko ana a Īnia i te mekameka ahumahi ā-rohe, ā, kua whakarewahia mana te rārangi ALMM mai i Āperira 2024, e kī ana me whakamahi noa ngā kaupapa kāwanatanga o Īnia, ngā kaupapa tautoko a te kāwanatanga rānei i ngā kaihanga wāhanga me ngā hua i runga i te rārangi ALMM, me te whakatakoto i ētahi here ki ngā kaihanga wāhanga Hainamana. Heoi, nā te mea he iti noa te ōwehenga o ngā inverter i roto i ngā pūnaha rokiroki hiko me te pūngao, ā, kāore he kamupene inverter matua i Īnia (e ai ki te rangahau a JMK, ko ngā kamupene matua e toru i roto i te wāhanga mākete inverter o Īnia i te tau 2023 ko Sungrow Power Supply, Sineng Electric, me te kamupene Itari a Fimer), kāore pea e whakawhāitihia tika ngā inverter hiko me te pūngao rokiroki. Heoi, ko ngā here a Īnia ki te mekameka ahumahi hiko o Haina ka pā ki ngā tāutanga hiko, ka arahi pea ki te koretake o te hiahia mō ngā inverter rokiroki pūngao. Kāore anō kia kitea te āhuatanga motuhake.
Āwherika ki te Tonga: Kei te haere tonu te tono tautoko hiko me nga tohu o te whakapai ake i te marama-a-marama
Ko Āwherika ki te Tonga te mākete rokiroki hiko whare nui rawa atu i Āwherika. I heke te tono i te tau 2024, engari kua kitea he pikinga iti. Ko Āwherika ki te Tonga te mākete nui rawa atu mō ngā inverter rokiroki photovoltaic i Āwherika. I te tau 2023, i kaweake tōku whenua i ngā inverter ki Āwherika ki te Tonga, ko te tapeke he 3.57 piriona yuan, ko te 72% o ngā kaweake inverter katoa a tōku whenua ki Āwherika. Hei te ōhanga nui rawa atu o Āwherika me te kaihanga waro nui, he nui te whakawhirinaki o te hanganga hiko o Āwherika ki te hiko wera. Nā te tawhito o ngā taputapu tipu hiko wera me te ngoikore o ngā whakaurunga whatunga hiko kua arahi ki te pēhanga ki te tuku hiko. Kua tangohia e te whatunga hiko ngā momotu hiko noa, ā, i tino pā ki te mahi o ia rā me te oranga o ngā kainoho. I raro i te raruraru hiko i te tau 2023, kua tere te tipu o te tono a Āwherika ki te Tonga mō te rokiroki whare mō te hiko tārua. Mai i te hauwhā tuatoru o te tau 2023, nā te nui o te penapena i te wā tōmua me ngā āhuatanga o te wā, kua heke te rahi o ngā kaweake inverter a tōku whenua ki Āwherika ki te Tonga. Mai i Hanuere ki Mei 2024, hei whakarite mō te pōtitanga perehitini o Mei, i pāngia te auau o ngā mahi pakihi ā-rohe i Āwherika ki te Tonga, ā, kei te noho tonu ngā taonga o mua, ā, i heke iho ngā tuku. Mai i Hanuere ki Mei, ko te tapeke o ngā kaweake inverter a tōku whenua ki Āwherika ki te Tonga he 490 miriona yuan, he hekenga tau-ki-te-tau o te 79%. Heoi, i te mutunga o te pōtitanga, e tumanako ana te mākete ka tīmata anō te wehewehe hiko, ā, kua pau katoa ngā taonga, ā, kua whakaatu te tono rokiroki pūngao rā o Āwherika ki te Tonga i ngā tohu whakapainga. Mō ngā tatauranga ia marama, kua pai ake te uara kaweake o ngā inverter i Āperira me Mei ia marama, e piki ake ana mā te 52% me te 51% ia marama, ā, e tumanakohia ana ka piki haere tonu te tono rokiroki whare i muri mai.
Kua whakamamahia te raruraru tohatoha hiko, engari kei te mau tonu te whakaaro o te hiahia roa mō te rokiroki whare. Ko te motuhanga hiko he raruraru roa e pā ana ki te mākete hiko o Āwherika ki te Tonga, e wehea ana ki te tohatoha hiko kua whakaritea (loadshedding) me te motuhanga kore i whakaritea (unplanned outages). Ka ārai a Eskom, te kamupene hiko ā-motu o Āwherika ki te Tonga, i te hinganga o te pūnaha hiko mā te tohatoha hiko kua whakaritea. Ka whakaputa auau ia i tētahi maramataka tohatoha hiko ki tana paetukutuku mana, me te tohatoha hiko i ia rohe, ā, ko te roanga o te tohatoha hiko i te awatea ka rerekē mai i te 1 ki te 16 hāora. Hei tāpiri, ka puta pea ngā motuhanga hiko kore i whakaritea ina he pakaru i roto i te whatunga hiko, he kore rānei e ranea te tuku hiko.
I te tau 2023, ko nga whare o Eskom me nga kaiwhakamahi arumoni me te ahumahi i kite i te rekoata mo nga ra 280 o te mate hiko (tae atu ki te whakamahere / kaore i whakamaherehia) tae atu ki te 12 haora ia ra, ko te nuinga na te whakatikatika me te tiaki i nga teihana hiko Kusile me Koeberg. Ko nga koretake o nga hiko kaore ano i puta i mua, na te tono mo te rokiroki hiko whare i Awherika ki te Tonga ka pahū i te tau 2023.
I te tau 2024, kia whiwhi tautoko i roto i te kowhiringa pooti, ka whakapau kaha te Kaihautu o te Kaunihera Motu o Awherika (ANC) ki te whakaoti i te raru o te tohatoha mana, a kua pai ake te tohatoha mana. Mai i te 4 o Hurae, 2024, kua 100 nga ra kua whakaemihia e Eskom kaore he tohatoha hiko, na te mea kua angitu te roha o te teihana hiko Kusile, te whakamahi i nga teihana hiko hiko hiko i roto i nga haora teitei, me nga kaiwhakamahi kua whakapai ake i to raatau oranga ma te whare. te rokiroki o te ra me etahi atu tikanga, ka whakaheke i te pehanga i runga i te raarangi hiko. Heoi, ehara i te mea ka mutu te hiko kore mutunga. I te timatanga o Hurae, i kii a Eskom kua pai ake te waatea o ana waeine ki tetahi waahanga, a, ko te aputa hiko i puta mai i te rahunga o nga waeine me nga mate hiko kore i whakamaherehia kua heke mai i te 18,000MW ki te toharite o te 12,000MW. Ka raru tonu nga kaiwhakamahi ki te mate hiko kaore i whakamaherehia. Ko te matapae o te takurua i tukuna e Eskom i te Paenga-whāwhā 26, 2024 e tohu ana ko nga tapahi hiko kua whakamaheretia i te takurua o te tau 2024 (Hune-Akuhata) ka whakahaerehia i te waahanga tuarua (2-4h ia ra), a ka 15,500MW o te mate hiko kore i whakamaheretia. puta.
E tautoko kaha ana te taha kaupapa here o Āwherika ki te Tonga i ngā pūnaha rokiroki photovoltaic o ngā whare, ā, he pai te hiahia mō te rokiroki pūngao o ngā whare mō te wā roa. Mai i Maehe 2023 ki Maehe 2024, i whakatinanahia e te kāwanatanga o Āwherika ki te Tonga he whakahekenga taake mō ngā photovoltaic o ngā whare. Mā te tāuta i ngā kōwae photovoltaic i runga ake i te 275W ka taea te whiwhi whakahokinga taake tae atu ki te 25%, ā, ka taea e ia tangata te whiwhi whakahokinga taake mōrahi o te 15,000 rand (tata ki te US$795). I te marama o Ākuhata 2023, i whakaputa a Āwherika ki te Tonga i te Kaupapa Whakahoki Pūngao (EBB), ā, ka taea e ngā whare me ngā umanga iti me te rahi te tono ki ngā peeke mō ngā nama tae atu ki te 300,000 rand (tata ki te US$15,900) me te 10 miriona rand (tata ki te US$530,000) ia, mō te tāutanga o ngā kōwae photovoltaic, ngā pākahiko rokiroki pūngao me ētahi atu taputapu. I whakatauhia e Infolink Consulting ngā raraunga Eskom. I te mutunga o te tau 2023, ko te kaha whakauru photovoltaic o Āwherika ki te Tonga ka tata ki te 7.3 GW, ā, ko ngā kaupapa tohatoha ka tata ki te 5 GW. I te tau 2023, ka tāpirihia e Āwherika ki te Tonga te 2.5GW o te kaha whakauru photovoltaic tohatoha, he pikinga 47% mai i te 1.7 GW i te tau 2022. Nā te iti o te wā tārua o ngā photovoltaic o te whare, i roto i te take o te motuhanga hiko maha, he maha ngā wā ka whiriwhiria e ngā kainoho ngā taputapu rokiroki hiko hei whakarite i te pumau o te hiko. Kua noho ko te "photovoltaic tohatoha + rokiroki hiko o te whare" hei whiringa nui mā ngā whānau o Āwherika ki te Tonga. Ahakoa kei te tere tipu haere ngā photovoltaic o te whare o Āwherika ki te Tonga, e matapaetia ana ka haere tonu te rokiroki hiko o te whare, ā, ka pai te tono mō te wā roa.
