Uto na-adịgide adịgide n'akụkụ ihe achọrọ, akụkụ mbubata kachasị mma a na-atụ anya ya
Akụkụ chọrọ: nrụnye fotovoltaic zuru ụwa ọnụ na-aga n'ihu na-eto, mana ọnụego uto ga-eji nwayọ
Ihe nrụnye fotovoltaic nke China na-ejigide ọganihu na-aga n'ihu: kemgbe 2024, n'ihi mmụba na ikike mmepụta fotovoltaic nke China, ọnụ ahịa ihe ndị ahụ agbadala n'ụwa niile ruo ogo dị iche iche. Mpaghara dị iche iche enweela mmasị iji wuo ụlọ ọrụ ọkụ fotovoltaic dabere na ọkụ eletrik nke onwe ha na ebumnuche mgbanwe ndụ ndụ. Dabere na data sitere na National Energy Administration, site na Jenụwarị ruo Ọktọba 2024, nrụnye fotovoltaic nke China ruru 181.30 GW, mmụba kwa afọ nke 27.17%. Anyị na-atụ anya na mkpokọta fotovoltaic nrụnye ikike na China ga-eru 260 GW na 2024, mmụba nke afọ na 20%, na ike ntinye na 2025 na-atụ anya iru 300 GW, mmụba nke afọ n'afọ nke 15% .
Uto na-aga n'ihu na nrụnye Centralized na Mgbasa ngwa ngwa nke ikike fotovoltaic nke azụmahịa na ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe: òkè nke nrụnye fotovoltaic etiti na China ka nọgidere na 50%. Kemgbe 2024, òkè nke nrụnye fotovoltaic na mpaghara azụmahịa na ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe ejirila nwayọọ nwayọọ na-abawanye ruo ihe dịka 40%. Dị ka "atụmatụ maka mmepe na iwu nke ikesa Photovoltaic Power Generation" (Draft for Comments) wepụtara site na National Energy Administration na October 9, 2024, nnukwu azụmahịa na ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe na-ekesa fotovoltaic ọrụ aghaghị ịnakwere ọgbọ nke onwe na nke onwe ya. -eji ihe nlereanya. Ụlọ ọrụ ntinye ego na-arụ ọrụ ga-ahụrịrị na ọkụ eletrik na-emepụta bụ kpamkpam nke onwe ya site na ntinye nke ngwaọrụ mgbochi azụ. A na-atụ anya ka ụkọ akụ dị elu dị elu na ọrụ fotovoltaic ekesa ga-abawanye n'ihu.
Ọnụ ọgụgụ nke nrụnye fotovoltaic na Europe na United States ga-agbanwe: dị ka data EIA si kwuo, a na-atụ anya na United States ga-agbakwunye ihe dịka 38.40GW nke nrụnye fotovoltaic etiti na 5.80GW nke nrụnye fotovoltaic ekesa na 2024, na-arụ ọrụ zuru ezu. nke 44.20GW, mmụba n'afọ n'afọ nke 64%; na 2025, a na-atụ anya na United States ga-agbakwunye ihe dịka 23.00GW nke nrụnye fotovoltaic etiti na 6.90GW nke nrụnye fotovoltaic ekesa, yana ngụkọta arụnyere nke 29.90GW, mbelata afọ n'afọ nke 32%. Dị ka European Photovoltaic Industry Association si kwuo, a na-atụ anya na Europe ga-enweta 63.90GW nke nrụnye fotovoltaic na 2024, mmụba nke afọ n'afọ nke 5%; na 2025, a na-atụ anya na Europe ga-enweta 71.80GW nke nrụnye fotovoltaic, mmụba nke afọ n'afọ nke 12%.
Viability Economic dị ka onye isi ọkwọ ụgbọ ala nke uto nrụnye fotovoltaic, nrụnye zuru ụwa ọnụ na-atụ anya ịhụ mmụba na-aga n'ihu: n'ihi mbelata nke ọnụ ahịa modul, ọnụ ahịa nke ike fotovoltaic aghọwo nnukwu asọmpi n'ụwa nile. Dị ka data IRENA si kwuo, ọnụ ahịa ọkụ eletrik dị larịị (LCOE) maka ụlọ ọrụ ike fotovoltaic na-arụ ọrụ n'ụwa nile gbadara $0.044/kWh na 2023, na ọnụ ahịa na-aga n'ihu na-ada. Otú ọ dị, n'ihi ọdịiche dị na mpaghara na ikike usoro ike ike, mkpa oriri ike, atumatu ume ike, na ngwaahịa dị ugbu a nke nrụnye ume ọhụrụ, mmụba nke nrụnye fotovoltaic dịgasị iche na mpaghara dị iche iche. Anyị na-atụ anya ike nrụnye fotovoltaic zuru ụwa ọnụ iji ruo 530 GW site na 2025, na-anọchite anya uto 11% n'afọ. N'ịtụle nha 1: 1.2 maka ndakọrịta ikike, a na-atụ anya na achọrọ modul gafere 636 GW. Anyị kwenyere na nrụnye fotovoltaic zuru ụwa ọnụ ga-abanye n'ọgbọ ọhụrụ nke uto dị ngwa ngwa, na-enwe mmụba kwa afọ nke 10%-20%.
N'akụkụ ọkọnọ: ikike nke dị ugbu a na-aga n'ihu, a na-atụkwa anya na a ga-emeziwanye ya na 2025. Isi ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe nke silicon ihe na batrị jupụtara n'ikike mmepụta, nke nwere ike izute 1000GW nke nrụnye fotovoltaic, nke na-achọkarị ụlọ ọrụ: Dị ka data sitere na si kwuo. Otu China Photovoltaic Association, ka ọ na-erule njedebe nke 2023, ikike mmepụta nke mba m kwa afọ nke polysilicon, silicon wafers, batrị, na modul ga-abụ nde tọn 2.3, 953.6GW, 929.9GW, na 920GW, n'otu n'otu. Ngwa silicon nke obodo m, silicon wafers, na ikike mmepụta modul mụbara site na 97.2%, 46.6%, na 66.7% kwa afọ, n'otu n'otu. Ebe ọ bụ na isi ihe ndị dị na fotovoltaic nke obodo m ka ga-enwe ikike mmepụta ọhụrụ na 2024 na a ga-akwalite mmepụta ikike mmepụta fotovoltaic nke mba ọzọ, ọnụ ọgụgụ nke mmepụta fotovoltaic ga-abawanye site na njedebe nke 2024. Anyị kwenyere na ike mmepụta nke ụlọ ọrụ fotovoltaic. yinye ga-agafe 1000GW site na njedebe nke 2024, nke nwere ike izute ọchịchọ maka nrụnye fotovoltaic 1000+GW.
Uto LiFePO4 na-aga n'ihu na-akarị ngwa ngwa NCM
Ngalaba batrị na-achọ Lithium. Dabere na USGS, na 2023, batrị ruru 87% nke ihe achọrọ lithium zuru ụwa ọnụ. N'ime ndị a, batrị LiFePO4 omenala, n'ihi nchekwa ha dị elu na ọnụ ahịa dị oke ọnụ ahịa, na-aga n'ihu na-ahụ òkè na-abawanye na batrị ike maka ụgbọ ala ike ọhụrụ ma ga-ejigide ikike ha na batrị nchekwa ike. Dị ka SMM si kwuo, dị ka nke October, mmepụta nke ternary ihe ruru 570,000 ton, a-afọ-na-abawanye nke 11%, ebe LiFePO4 mmepụta ruru 1.73 nde tọn, a-na-afọ na-abawanye nke 63%.
Ụgbọ ala ume ọhụrụ: Ọnụego uto na-eji nwayọọ nwayọọ, lekwasị anya na ntinye ngwakọ ngwakọ yana mmepe batrị steeti siri ike.
Nọgide na-enwe nnukwu uto na China. N'afọ 2021 na 2022, ọnụ ahịa ahịa nke ụgbọ ala ike ọhụrụ na obodo m ruru 150% na 100% n'otu n'otu. Mgbe ha nwesịrị ngwa ngwa ngwa ngwa, mmụba na-eto eto n'ime afọ abụọ gara aga nọgidere na 30-40%. Dị ka nke September 2024, ahịa olu nke ọhụrụ ume ugbo ala na mba m ruru 8.32 nde, a-na-afọ ịrị elu nke 32.5%, nke ahịa olu nke plug-na ngwakọ ugbo ala ruru 3.33 nde, aza 40%. Mwepu ụtụ ụlọ nke ịzụrụ ihe na-aga n'ihu, mana site na June 2024, ụdị na-emezughị usoro nka dị mkpa agaghịzi enwe mmasị n'atụmatụ ịhapụ ụtụ isi ịzụta. N'otu oge ahụ, amụma ochie maka ọhụrụ na-abawanye ụba mgbe niile. A na-eme atụmatụ na olu ahịa nke ụgbọ ala ike ọhụrụ na mba m ga-eru nde 12 na nde 15 na 2024 na 2025, mmụba nke afọ na 26% na 25%, ka na-ejigide ọnụego uto dị elu;
Ahịa mba ofesi adalatala. Na United States, n'ihi mbelata nke Iwu Mbelata Ọnụ ego (IRA) malite na 2024, ụfọdụ ụdị agaghịzi enweta enyemaka nke US $ 7,500 ma ọ bụ US $ 3,500. N'ihe dị ka Septemba 2024, ire ụgbọ ala ike ọhụrụ na United States ruru nde 1.17, mmụba kwa afọ nke 7.6%, na ire ụgbọ ala ume ọhụrụ na Europe ruru nde 1.99, mbelata kwa afọ kwa afọ. nke 6%. Ahịa zuru ụwa ọnụ nke ụgbọ ala ume ọhụrụ ruru nde 11.52, mmụba kwa afọ nke 22%, na mmụba n'otu oge ahụ n'afọ gara aga bụ 39%. A na-eme atụmatụ na ire ụgbọ ala ume ọhụrụ zuru ụwa ọnụ na 2024 na 2025 ga-eru nde 16.6 na nde 19.2, mmụba kwa afọ nke 21% na 16%, n'otu n'otu, nke dabara na ọnụego uto esenidụt nke 4% na 3%.
Nchekwa ike: Ọganihu dị elu na-aga n'ihu, lekwasị anya na ihe ịma aka njikọta ikuku na grid anyanwụ.
Dị ka CNESA si kwuo, mkpokọta arụnyere ike nke ahịa nchekwa ike ike ụwa na 2023 ga-abụ 289.2GW, mmụba nke afọ site na 22%, nke ikike ntinye nke nchekwa ike ọhụrụ ga-abụ 91.3GW, otu afọ. - na-abawanye 100% n'afọ. Oke nchekwa ike ọhụrụ na 2023 ga-abawanye site na ihe dịka 6% afọ ise gara aga. % mụbara ruo 31.6%. N'afọ 2023, ike agbakwunyere ike nke ahịa nchekwa ike nke China ga-abụ 86.5GW, mmụba kwa afọ nke 45%, nke ikike ntinye ike nke nchekwa ike ọhụrụ ga-abụ 34.5GW, otu afọ n'afọ. mmụba nke 164%, na oke nke nchekwa ike ọhụrụ ga-abawanye site na ihe dịka 5% afọ ise gara aga ruo 40%.
China: Nrụnye nchekwa ike ọhụrụ, ọkachasị batrị lithium-ion, ka na-enwe uto dị elu. Na 2024, ọnụ ọgụgụ uto nke nchekwa ike arụnyere ikike ga-adị elu nke ukwuu karịa mmụba nke mmepụta cell nchekwa ume. N'ọnwa Ọktọba, mmepụta mkpụrụ ndụ nchekwa ike ruru 244GW, mmụba nke afọ na afọ nke 53%. Dị ka nke August, ikike arụnyere ọhụrụ nke nchekwa ike ọhụrụ ruru 49GW, mmụba nke afọ na afọ nke 106%. Otú ọ dị, n'afọ na-eto eto nke ike arụnyere anyanwụ ga-adaba nke ọma na 2024, nke nwere ike ibelata uto nke nchekwa ike arụnyere ikike. Ka ọnwa Septemba, ikike arụnyere anyanwụ toro 48.3% kwa afọ, gbadata na 55.2% na njedebe nke afọ gara aga.
United States: Ọganihu dị elu na-aga n'ihu. Ka ọ dị ugbu a, nchekwa ike na United States na-achịkwa nchekwa ike n'ihu nke mita. Ọ bụ ezie na igbu oge na njikọ grid amachibidoro uto ya, ọ ka na-edobe oke uto. Isi ihe kpatara igbu oge njikọ grid bụ usoro njikọ grid siri ike yana ọnụ ahịa mgbanwe grid dị elu. Na Julaị 2023, US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) haziri usoro njikọ grid dị mkpa ma mee ka usoro njikọ grid ume ọhụrụ dị mfe. Site na Septemba afọ a, ikike nchekwa ike arụnyere ọhụrụ na United States bụ 6,820MW, mmụba kwa afọ nke 55%.
Europe: Ọchịchọ maka ego nchekwa ezinụlọ agbadala, akụkụ agbakwunyere nwere ike jiri nwayọọ nwayọọ si na nchekwa ego si n'ichekwa ụlọ gaa na nnukwu ego. Dabere na "European Energy Storage Market Outlook 2024-2028" nke European Photovoltaic Industry Association wepụtara na nso nso a, ahịa nchekwa ike Europe ga-arụnye ikike ọhụrụ nke 17.2GWh na 2023, mmụba kwa afọ nke 94%, yana oke ahịa nke Germany. na Italy bụ 33% na 18% n'otu n'otu. Ebe nchekwa ike ezinụlọ na-abawanye, nchekwa ike ụlọ ọrụ na azụmahịa, yana nchekwa n'akụkụ grid bụ 12GWh, 1.6 GWh, na 3.6 GWh n'otu n'otu, na-aza 70%, 9%, na 21% n'otu n'otu. A na-atụ anya na ike arụnyere ọhụrụ ga-abụ 22.4GWh na 2024, mmụba nke afọ n'afọ nke 62%. Ihe na-abawanye nchekwa ike ezinụlọ, nchekwa nchekwa ike ụlọ ọrụ na azụmahịa, na nchekwa akụkụ grid bụ 8.7 GWh, 2.7 GWh, na 11 GWh n'otu n'otu, na-aza 39% na 12% n'otu n'otu. % na 49%
