Nchekwa ike: Ikike Bottleneck dị mfe, A na-atụ anya na ọ ga-aga n'ihu na-eto eto
Anyị na-ebu amụma na arụnyere ike nke zuru ụwa ọnụ ike nchekwa ahịa ga-eru 331.7GWh site 2025, na ahịa ohere maka ọhụrụ arụnyere ike ga-eru 330.27 ijeri yuan (na mbụ 564.55 ijeri yuan). Nke a bụ ọkachasị n'ihi mbelata ọnụahịa ere nke sistemu nchekwa ike n'ihi mbelata nke ọnụ ahịa akụrụngwa. N'ime ha, nchekwa nchekwa ike na China, United States, Europe na ahịa ndị na-apụta na-atụ anya inweta mmepe ngwa ngwa.
(1) China: Anyị na-eme atụmatụ na site na 2025, a na-atụ anya na ike arụnyere ọhụrụ nke nchekwa ike ụlọ n'ihu mita ga-eru 113.4GWh, na ike arụnyere nke ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe na nke azụmahịa n'azụ mita na-atụ anya iru 19.7GWh. A na-atụ anya na ahịa ngwa ngwa abụọ ahụ ga-enweta mmepe ngwa ngwa.
(2) Europe: Anyị na-eme atụmatụ na site na 2025, a na-atụ anya na ike ntinye ọhụrụ nke Europe nke nnukwu nchekwa dị n'ihu tebụl ga-eru 27.8GWh, na nchekwa ụlọ na ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe na nke azụmahịa n'azụ tebụl na-atụ anya iru 26.9GWh. N'ịbụ ndị na-emetụta mkpokọta ngwa ahịa dị elu gara aga, mmụba nke nchekwa ike arụnyere ikike mgbe akwụkwọ nguzozi na 2023 ga-ebelata ruo n'ókè ụfọdụ, ma a na-atụ anya na mmepe nke nnukwu nchekwa ga-eme ngwa ngwa.
(3) United States: Anyị na-eme atụmatụ na site na 2025, a na-atụ anya na ike arụnyere nke nnukwu nchekwa nchekwa na United States ga-eru 67.8GWh, na ike arụnyere nke nchekwa ezinụlọ na ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe na nke azụmahịa n'azụ tebụl na-atụ anya. ruo 10.5GWh. A na-atụ anya nrụnye nchekwa ike US ga-enweta uto ngwa ngwa n'okpuru ndabere nke mkpali amụma IRA yana mmụba n'oke nrụnye ike ọhụrụ mpaghara.
(4) Ahịa na-apụta: Anyị na-eme atụmatụ na site na 2025, a na-atụ anya na ike arụnyere nke nnukwu nchekwa dị n'ihu mita, gụnyere Australia, Middle East na Africa, ga-eru 46.6GWh, na ike arụnyere n'azụ-n'azụ. Ahịa nchekwa ike mita nke South Africa, Ndịda Ebe Ọwụwa Anyanwụ Eshia na ebe ndị ọzọ na-atụ anya iru 19GWh.
Achọ nchekwa nchekwa ike zuru ụwa ọnụ ka a na-atụ anya na ọ ga-aga n'ihu na-eto ngwa ngwa
Nyochaa nke 2023: Dị ka atụmatụ Infolink Consulting si kwuo, a na-atụ anya na nchekwa nchekwa ike zuru ụwa ọnụ ga-eru 100 GWh na 2023, nke nnukwu nchekwa nchekwa ike dị ihe dị ka 78 GWh, na ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe, azụmahịa na nchekwa ezinụlọ bụ banyere 22 GWh; Ngụkọta ike nchekwa ike arụnyere na 2022 bụ 44GWh, na amụma amụma afọ na 2023 Super +120%.
(1) China: Dị ka atụmatụ Infolink si kwuo, a na-atụ anya na ike nchekwa ike nke China ga-eru 39GWh na 2023, + 147% kwa afọ. l United States: Dabere na atụmatụ nyocha Infolink, United States na-atụ anya na etinyere ikike nke 25.5 GWh na 2023, + 85% kwa afọ, nke dị ala karịa atụmanya ahịa. N'ime ha, ikike arụnyere na 2022 bụ 13.8GWh, dabere na ọnụ ọgụgụ Wood Mackenzie.
(2) Europe: Dị ka atụmatụ Infolink si kwuo, a na-atụ anya na ike arụnyere na Europe ga-eru 17 GWh na 2023, nke ego nchekwa ezinụlọ dị ihe dịka 9 GWh. N'oge a, United Kingdom na Ireland ka na-eduzi ikike arụnyere nke nnukwu nchekwa nchekwa, n'ihi na ebe abụọ a nwere usoro ahịa zuru oke, ebe France na Germany ewepụtala ngwa ngwa.
(3) A na-atụ anya atụmanya na nso nso na ọkara: Dị ka data BNEF si kwuo, a na-atụ anya na ikike nchekwa ike ọhụrụ nke ụwa ga-abụ 42GW / 99 GWh na 2023, 110 GW / 372 GWh na 2030, na ọnụ ọgụgụ mmepụta ihe. site na 2023 ruo 2030 ga-abụ 14.7%/20.8% n'otu n'otu. N'ime ha, ikike arụnyere na 2024 na 2025 na-atụ anya na ọ ga-abụ ihe dịka 57 GW na 69 GW n'otu n'otu, + 36% na + 21% kwa afọ.
Ahịa Nchekwa Ike US buru ibu: amụma uto na-anọpụ iche nke 58% na 2024
Amụma ụlọ ọrụ: Dị ka ozi Gaogong Lithium si kwuo, n'ihi ọchịchọ siri ike maka nchekwa ike n'ihu mita na United States na mmejuputa atumatu IRA, a na-atụ anya mmụba nke ike arụnyere nke ahịa nchekwa ike US. iru 88.5% site na 2023 ruo 2025.
Atụmanya nchekwa ike US: Dị ka data EIA na nyocha anyị si dị, a na-atụ anya na olu ọrụ ọhụrụ na 2023 ga-abụ 6.1-7.3 GW, amụma izizi bụ 14.6 GW na 2024, yana atụmatụ uto nke + 99%; anyị nwere atụmanya na-anọpụ iche na a ga-etinye nchekwa nchekwa ike US na 2024 Ikike ahụ bụ 9.6 GW, + 58% kwa afọ.
EIA na-eme atụmatụ mmụba nke + 99% na-arụ ọrụ na 2024: Dị ka data nke ụlọ ọrụ gọọmentị US EIA wepụtara na njedebe nke Disemba, a na-atụ anya na atụmatụ ọrụ ọhụrụ nke nchekwa ike batrị nke 1 MW na karịa na 2023 ga-abụ 7.3 GW, na atụmatụ itinye ego ọhụrụ na 2024 ga-abụ olu njem ụgbọ njem bụ 14.6 GW, + 99% kwa afọ.
Ọ nwere ike ịbụ 6.1GW etinyere n'ọrụ na 2023: N'ihi nnukwu nsogbu igbu oge na ọrụ atụmatụ EIA, anyị na-atụle ọnọdụ mmejuputa atumatu na 2023 dabere na data ọganihu owuwu ọrụ EIA nke October. Oke arụmọrụ sitere na Jenụwarị ruo Septemba 2023 bụ 4.4 GW; Oke ọrụ a na-eme atụmatụ site na Ọktoba ruo Disemba bụ 4.2 GW, nke ọganihu ihe owuwu ahụ karịrị 50% nke ọnụ ọgụgụ ọrụ 1.7 GW. A na-eji nke a dị ka njedebe dị ala nke oke arụ ọrụ atụmatụ na 2023, kwekọrọ na 2023 Olu ntinye ọrụ a na-atụ anya bụ 6.1 GW.
Ọnụego uto na-anọpụ iche + 58% na 2024: Dị ka data EIA si Ọktọba, a ga-enwe 6.1 GW ọrụ n'usoro ihe owuwu na 2024, 1.1 GW nke ọrụ akwadoro mana amalitebeghị, 4.4 GW n'ime ha na-eche nnabata. na 3.3 GW nke amalitebeghị. Tụkwasị na nke ahụ, e nwere 2.4GW nke ọrụ ndị na-erughị 50% ọganihu owuwu na 2023. Anyị na-eme atụmatụ ntinye ọrụ na 2024 site na nchegharị, nnọpụiche na nchekwube atụmatụ. Atụmatụ nchekwa nchekwa bụ na ọganihu ihe owuwu na 2023 ga-erughị 50% na ọrụ ndị malitere iwu na 2024 ga-agbakọta 8.5GW, + 40% kwa afọ; atụmatụ na-anọpụ iche ga-amụba ọnụ ọgụgụ nke ọrụ akwadoro, ngụkọta Ọ bụ 9.6GW, + 58% afọ na afọ; Atụmatụ nchekwube na-abawanye ọnụ ọgụgụ ọrụ ndị na-echere nkwado, na-agbakọta 14.1 GW, + 130% kwa afọ.
Atụmanya maka nchekwa nchekwa ike buru ibu na United States: Dị ka data EIA na nyocha anyị si kwuo, ikike ịrụ ọrụ ọhụrụ na 2023 bụ 6.1-7.3 GW, amụma izizi bụ 14.6 GW na 2024, yana atụmatụ uto nke +99. %; Anyị nwere atụmanya na-anọpụ iche na a ga-etinye nchekwa nchekwa ike US na 2024 Ike ahụ bụ 9.6 GW, + 58% kwa afọ.
Mgbasa mpaghara nke mmepe nchekwa nchekwa ike: mkpokọta arụ ọrụ nke nchekwa ike batrị nke 1 MW na karịa na United States bụ 9.1 GW, nke 3 kachasị elu bụ California 4.9 GW, Texas 2.1 GW, na Florida 0.5 GW. California nwere ihe ruru 54.3%, karịa mpaghara ndị ọzọ. . Ọrụ abụọ kachasị elu zubere na 2023 bụ California nwere 3.6 GW yana Texas nwere 2.1 GW. Ndu California adalatala. Ọrụ abụọ kachasị elu zubere na 2024 bụ Texas nwere 7.6 GW yana California nwere 5.1 GW. Texas agafeela California. , na-edu mba. Na mgbakwunye, Nevada na Arizona amalitela igosipụta ọchịchọ siri ike, na ụlọ ọrụ ike na mpaghara ndị a nwere sistemụ monopoly jikọtara ọnụ.
Ahịa Nchekwa Ike nke Europe: Ọchịchọ Atụrụ anya ịbịaru nha ahịa US.
Ọchịchọ nchekwa buru ibu nke Europe: Site na 2023 ruo 2026, ikike nchekwa ike ọhụrụ nke Europe ga-abụ 6.4GW, 7.0GW, 8.4GW, na 8.1GW n'otu n'otu, nke bụ +43%, +9%, +20%, na -4% kwa afọ, na ọnụ ọgụgụ ahụ dị nso na nke United States. . Anyị na-atụ anya na igbu oge na nchekwa nchekwa ike dị ukwuu na UK ga-ebelata isi na 2023 wee bulie ọchịchọ na uto na 2024.
Nkesa mpaghara: Dabere na data LCP Delta, Europe na-eche na ọ ga-ebuga 1.9GW nke nchekwa ike batrị na 2022, 85% nke a na-ekesa na United Kingdom, Ireland, Germany na France. LCP Delta kwenyere na UK, Germany, Greece, Ireland na Italy ka bụ ahịa nchekwa batrị ise kacha mma na Europe.
Ọchịchọ Britain: Dị ka atụmatụ ESO si kwuo, United Kingdom na-achọ inweta ikike nchekwa ike arụnyere 12GW na 2026, ikike arụnyere ọhụrụ sitere na 2023 ruo 2026 ga-abụ 2.4 GW, 3.1 GW, 2.1 GW, na 2.4 GW n'otu n'otu. . Ebe ọ bụ na ọganihu nke nchekwa nchekwa ike na 2023 dị obere karịa ka a tụrụ anya ya, ọnụ ọgụgụ Modo Energy na 2023 ga-abụ 3.6GW, yana 1.7GW ọzọ, nke dị ala karịa atụmanya atụmatụ ESO. Ya mere, a na-egbukwa oge na atụmanya nke ọchịchọ na UK, nke nwere ike ibute uto ngwa ngwa na nchekwa nchekwa ike na 2024.
Achọ na mpaghara ndị ọzọ: Gris na-ezube imeta nchekwa ike batrị 6GW site na 2030; Italy ewepụtala ọnụ ahịa nchekwa ngwa ngwa na ịre ahịa ikike, nke a na-atụ anya na ọ ga-etolite ahịa ọkwa GW. Na mgbakwunye, Hungary na-atụle ịwụnye ma ọ dịkarịa ala 0.8GW / 1.6GWh nke ọrụ nchekwa ike ọhụrụ site na atụmatụ ahụ.
Nchekwa ike ụlọ: Nrụnye ọhụrụ zuru ụwa ọnụ a na-atụ anya iru 13.3 GWh na 2024
Nyocha achọrọ: A na-atụ anya na ike arụnyere ọhụrụ nke ahịa nchekwa ike ezinụlọ ga-eru 13.3GWh na 2023.
Europe: Na-eleba anya na Germany na Ịtali, ikike ọhụrụ arụnyere na ụlọ ahịa ezinụlọ Europe ga-eru 9.57GWh na 2024, na ahịa nchekwa ike ụlọ ọhụrụ na Europe ga-aza 71% nke ụwa.
North America: Na-elekarị anya na United States. A na-atụ anya na ọnụ ọgụgụ nchekwa ike ezinụlọ na United States ga-abawanye site na 1.4GWh na 2024.
Mpaghara APEC: Na-ele anya na Australia na Japan. A na-atụ anya na nchekwa ike ezinụlọ Australia ga-agbakwunye 0.7GWh na 2023, Japan ga-agbakwunye 0.85GWh.
Mpaghara ndị ọzọ: South Africa, Middle East na Ndịda Ebe Ọwụwa Anyanwụ Eshia ahụla ntakịrị uto na ahịa nchekwa ike ezinụlọ. Karịsịa na South Africa, mbupu nke micro-inverter na ngwaahịa nchekwa ụlọ 3kWh etoola ngwa ngwa. North Africa na Middle East ahụtawo ngwa ngwa ka a na-achọ maka nnọchi ike mmanụ dizel. Ejikọtara ya na ihe geopolitical, nchekwa ike na ike ndabere ejirila nwayọọ nwayọọ ghọọ ihe dị mkpa. Dịka nke 2023H1, ike arụnyere nke ahịa nchekwa ike ezinụlọ na Middle East na North Africa abawanyela site na ihe dịka 0.03GWh, ma na-atụ anya iru 0.07GWh n'afọ niile.
Nchekwa ike ụlọ Europe: Nrụnye ọhụrụ na Europe na-atụ anya iru 9.57 GWh na 2024
Europe: A na-atụ anya na Germany ga-abụ isi ihe na-eto eto na Europe, yana ikike arụnyere ruru 4.5GW na 2023, + 140% kwa afọ.
Germany: Ahịa nchekwa nchekwa ike nke German abụrụla akụkụ ahịa kachasị ukwuu na Europe. Dị ka EESA si kwuo, ngụkọta ike arụnyere na 2023H1 bụ 2.41GWh. Nkeji nke atọ bụ oge nkwụsị maka ahịa German, yana mbelata nkeji iri na ise nke 4.7%. Ikike arụnyere na Jenụwarị ruo Septemba 2023 bụ 3.51GWh, na-erute 4.5GWh na njedebe nke afọ.
Italy: Site na mbelata nke ego nchekwa nchekwa ezinụlọ, ahịa nchekwa ike Italy adalatala na nkeji nke abụọ. Otú ọ dị, nrụzigharị nke ụlọ ndị Italy dị ugbu a agwụla na 16.5%, nke dị nso na 19% nke mba ahụ na 2030. Ịchọ ahịa ahịa na-esote ga-aga n'ihu Ọ bụrụ na ọ daa mbà, ọ ga-esi ike ịnọgide na-enwe ọganihu na 2022. .
Mba ndị ọzọ dị na Europe: Ekele maka mmepe nke ahịa ụgbọ ala eletrik, ahịa ụlọ fotovoltaic na mgbasawanye nke smart mita, ikike arụnyere ọhụrụ nke ahịa nchekwa ike ezinụlọ UK na 2023H1 agafeela na 2022 site na 0.28GWh, na-erute 0.38GWh, ma na-atụ anya ka agbakwunye ya na 2024 Ọnụ ọgụgụ ahụ ga-eru 0.62GWh. Ike arụnyere ọhụrụ nke Austria H1 ga-adị ntakịrị ala karịa nke UK, mana gafere nke Spain, rute 0.3GWh; N'otu oge ahụ, Switzerland na mpaghara Benelux na-atụ anya ịgbakwunye 0.32GWh.
Nchekwa ike ụlọ US: Nrụnye ọhụrụ na US Atụrụ anya iru 1.4 GWh na 2024
United States: Dị ka data EESA si kwuo, a na-atụ anya na ike arụnyere nke nchekwa ezinụlọ na United States ga-abawanye site na 1.4GWh na 2023. l
Ebe nchekwa ezinụlọ US arụnyere ikike: Dị ka data Wood Mackenzie si kwuo, site na Jenụwarị ruo June 2023, ikike nchekwa ezinụlọ ọhụrụ arụnyere na United States ruru 293.2MW/769.4MVh, -1.9%/+8.5% kwa afọ. Kemgbe 2022Q4, mbupu sistemu nchekwa ezinaụlọ US agbadala otu ọnwa kwa ọnwa, ọkachasị site na oke ọmụrụ nwa maka usoro nchekwa nchekwa ike. N'ihe gbasara amụma, ihe ndọghachi azụ nke ọrụ ike anyanwụ na-adabaghị maka nchekwa n'okpuru iwu NEM 2.0 ochie na California, yana mbelata ọnụahịa ọkụ eletrik na etiti United States, emeela ka ndị bi na-egbu oge ntinye nke nchekwa ezinụlọ. usoro. EESA na-ebu amụma na n'okpuru amụma NEM3.0 ọhụrụ California, ọchịchọ maka ike anyanwụ na nchekwa nchekwa ike ga-eji nwayọọ nwayọọ na-akawanye mma ka ọ na-erule njedebe nke 2023, nke a na-atụ anya na ọ ga-ebelata ntakịrị nsogbu nchịkọta ngwa ahịa nke njupụta na-akpata.
US nchekwa nchekwa arụnyere ikike amụma: US nchekwa arụnyere ikike arụnyere na-atụ anya na-abawanye site 1.4GWh na 2024. Tụkwasị na nke a, Wood Mackenzie kwenyere na afọ na-adalata na ọhụrụ ike nchekwa ezinụlọ arụnyere ikike na 2023Q2 agaghị emetụta ike siri ike. usoro uto n'ọdịnihu. N'iburu n'uche usoro ọnụego oke nso nso a yana igbu oge nrụnye na California, nrụnye kwa afọ na 2027 na-atụ anya na ọ ga-abụ ugboro 3.5 karịa na 2023, yana ngụkọta nrụnye ruru 8.0GW n'ime afọ ise.
Nchekwa ike azụmahịa na ụlọ ọrụ US: A na-atụ anya itinye 0.2 GW na 2024, 3 GW site na 2023 ruo 2027
United States: Na 2023H1, ikike nchekwa ike ụlọ ọrụ na azụmahịa arụnyere ọhụrụ na United States ruru 101.6MW/310.3MWh. A na-atụ anya na ike arụnyere ọhụrụ ga-abụ 0.2GW na 2024 yana 0.98GW na 2025.
Ọnọdụ nchekwa ike ụlọ ọrụ na azụmaahịa dị ugbu a na United States: Na 2023H1, ọnụ ọgụgụ nchikota nke nrụnye nchekwa ụlọ ọrụ ọhụrụ na azụmaahịa na United States ruru 101.6MW/310.3MWh, +14.3%/+53.7% kwa afọ. Dịka amụma ụlọ ọrụ ahụ siri kwuo, ihe ịma aka ndị na-enye ihe na-esote na enweghị atumatu dị mkpa na steeti dị iche iche ga-enwe mmetụta na nrụnye nchekwa ụlọ ọrụ na azụmahịa.
Amụma nchekwa nchekwa ike ụlọ ọrụ na azụmahịa nke USA: Dị ka nrụnye nchekwa ụlọ ọrụ na azụmaahịa nwere ọnọdụ dị ala karịa ka a tụrụ anya ya na 2020 na 2022, amụma nchikota afọ ise maka ụlọ ọrụ US na nchekwa azụmahịa site na 2023 ruo 2027 belatara site na 28%. 4.1GW wedara ruo 3.0GW. Dị ka atụmatụ Wood Mackenzie si kwuo, United States ga-agbakwunye ihe dịka 0.2GW nke ikike nchekwa nchekwa ike ụlọ ọrụ na azụmahịa na 2024, yana ihe dịka 0.98GW na 2025.
Nchekwa Ike Azụmahịa Europe na ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe: A na-atụ anya itinye 0.62 GW na 2024
Ọkwa nwụnye: Ike arụnyere ọhụrụ nke nchekwa ike ụlọ ọrụ na azụmahịa na 2023 ga-abụ 0.50GWh, na-aza 6% nke mkpokọta ikike nchekwa ike arụnyere ọhụrụ.
Amụma nwụnye: A na-atụ anya na ikike arụnyere ọhụrụ nke nchekwa ike ụlọ ọrụ na nke azụmahịa na 2024 ga-abụ 0.62GWh, nke Germany na United Kingdom bụ isi ahịa maka nchekwa nchekwa ike ụlọ ọrụ na azụmahịa.
Nchekwa ike azụmahịa na ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe na Eshia, Africa, na Latin America: ike ndabere ya na elekere ọrụ dị elu nwere ike dochie 126 GW
Ọnụ ọgụgụ a na-agbanwe agbanwe: Obere ndị na-emepụta mmanụ diesel nwere awa ọrụ dị elu bụ ihe kacha mkpa maka nchekwa ụlọ ọrụ na azụmahịa na Asia, Africa na Latin America. A na-eme atụmatụ na ọnụọgụ mmanụ dizel generator bụ ihe dịka 126GW; sochiri obere uzuoku generators, karịsịa ndị nwere ibu unit nha. ; Ndị na-emepụta mmanụ dizel na ọkara na mba ndị na-akpata obere ego nwekwara ike dochie ha, yana ngwaahịa mmanụ dizel dị ugbu a bụ 170GW.
N'afọ 2016, nkezi awa iji obere injin diesel dị adị kwa afọ gafere awa 400, nke obere injin mmanụ ụgbọ ala fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ awa 400. Anyị na-eme atụmatụ dabere na chaatị IFC na ikike arụnyere nke obere ndị na-emepụta uzuoku, obere ndị na-emepụta mmanụ diesel, ndị na-emepụta mmanụ dizel na nnukwu mmanụ diesel bụ 42GW, 126GW, 41GW, na 227GW n'otu n'otu. Ikike mmepụta ike kwekọrọ bụ 16TWh, 53TWh, 10TWh, na 53TWh, yana oge ntinye kwa afọ kwekọrọ na ọnụọgụ bụ 378h, 421h, 249h, 231h. Ebe ọ bụ na elu nke kwa afọ itinye n'ọrụ awa, mma aku na uba nke ekesa ike nchekwa, anyị na-atụ anya na dochie ẹdude obere diesel generators ga-elekwasị anya na nso na-ajụ okwu. Nke abuo, kwa afọ itinye n'ọrụ awa nke obere uzuoku generator nwekwara elu. Anyị na-atụ anya na nnukwu igwe na-emepụta uzuoku nwere ikike oriri ka mma nwekwara ike dochie ya.
Ndị na-emepụta mmanụ dizel na ọkara na mba ndị dị ala na nke etiti nwere ike iji dochie ha, yana ihe dị ka 170GW. Ọnụ ọgụgụ nke nkwado ndabere na mpaghara mba Middle Eastern bụ ihe dịka 100GW, ọkachasị ndị na-emepụta mmanụ dizel buru ibu, nwere ike imepụta ike kwa afọ nke naanị 10TWh yana awa itinye n'ọrụ kwa afọ nke ihe dịka 100h. Ewezuga nnukwu ndị na-emepụta mmanụ dizel na mba Middle Eastern, oge ojiji nke ndị na-emepụta mmanụ dizel na ndị buru ibu na mba ndị dị ala na nke etiti bụ ihe dị ka awa 314, nke nwere ikike ngbanwe dị mma.
